We have a pretty busy Monday on our hands with nine games making up the evening slate. Let’s take a look where we might be able to find some value.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Nationals @ Pirates
It was not that long ago I was betting against Joe Ross at every opportunity, but he has really turned it around. In his last three starts and 18 innings he has allowed just one earned run with 11 strikeouts and nine hits. In contrast Trevor Williams has been struggling for a couple of months now, with his ERA having risen by two full earned runs since May 17. In that time, he has allowed four or more earned runs six times. Throw in that the Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 and the Pirates win just 40% of the time at home and the Nationals look the right side tonight.
1u – WAS Nationals ML @ -120
Brewers @ Cardinals
This game has the potential to have a lot of runs scored in it. The Brewers pitching got absolutely hammered over the weekend allowing 30 runs to be scored across the two games. Their bullpen has been absolutely stretched over the weekend and it puts a lot of pressure on starter Zach Davies. Davies has struggled recently, allowing 17 earned runs in his last three starts and 13 innings. On the other side we have Dakota Hudson, who for the large part has been very impressive this season. However, he has struggled against left-handed hitters, with a .307 batting average and .531 slugging percentage against. Given that the Brewers can load their lineup with some very talented lefties he could be set for a rough day. Combine all of that with a hitter-friendly lean in the weather and the over looks the right play in this one.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -102
White Sox @ Twins
This is a game between two in form teams. The White Sox have covered in four of their last five and the Twins in all of their last five. However, the lean on overall season numbers goes to the Sox, who cover over 57% of the time on the road this season. Throw in the form of Ivan Nova, having allowed just two earned runs in his last five starts and 37 innings. That run has included games against the Twins, Phillies and Astros, including going nine innings with just four hits against the Astros last time out. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has allowed 16 earned runs in his last five starts. While that is not terrible, the pitching edge is actually with the White Sox in this one and I think they can keep it close.
1u – CHI White Sox +1.5 @ -104
By Ben Rolfe