We have a quiet feel to Thursday with 10 teams getting the day off. However, the evening slate should still be loaded with action as nine of the 10 games fall there.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Nationals @ Pirates
The over in Pittsburgh has been the hot bet this season. That is especially case with these middling lines, with a line between 8-and-9.5 seeing the over hit 28 times out of 42. However, those games will rarely have had a pitcher of the quality of Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer has a 2.41 ERA on the season and has allowed just nine earned runs in his last 10 starts. His recent form on the road is impressive too, allowing just three earned in his last five starts. To make a total work you need two parts of the pie and that is where Steven Brault comes in. At home in his last five starts he has allowed nine earned runs in 25 1/3 innings.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -110
Marlins @ Braves
Two of the most frustrating parts of baseball this season meet. Miami seemingly have these random outburst of offense, and SunTrust Park is the most frustrating park for picking overs and unders due to the lack of history in a relatively new ballpark. However, this game presents the opportunity to look to the under. A total of just 11 runs have been scored in this series so far and both teams have seen the under hit in four of their last five games. Pitching wise we have Mike Soroka, who right now you just trust to scoring the down without thinking twice about it, and Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has been more up and down but he has been solid recently. In his last three starts he has allowed seven earned runs in 19 2/3 innings, with two of those starts being on the road. It will not feel comfortable until the final pitch, but this is an under play for me tonight.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -117
Yankees @ Athletics
The Athletics seem to have the Yankees number right now and they may actually have the pitching matchup in their favor in this one. Since arriving in Oakland Roark has allowed just five earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. He has had a little luck, allowing 16 hits and five walks but he has generally been solid. I do have a little concern about the amount of contact he allows with the wind expected to blow out, but there is reason for optimism when we look to the other pitcher. Masahiro Tanaka is having a random season for the ages right now. His last five starts have seen him allow two or less earned runs three times, five earned runs once and 12 earned runs on 12 hits in Boston. He is struggling to strike hitters out right now, with just 18 strikeouts in his last 27 innings, so he could also suffer from allowing contact in hitter favorable weather conditions. Oakland are in a tough wildcard race with the Rays and Indians and sweeping the Yankees would lay down a real marker to those other two teams.
1u – OAK Athletic ML @ +110
By Ben Rolfe