Daily Picks: Buehler In For A Repeat Performance?
Tuesday is going to be a hectic evening. All 30 teams are on the field and all 15 games take place on the evening slate. There are some fascinating games tonight and some interesting angles with which to take.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
This looks like it could be a really interesting game. Let’s be honest, any time Yu Darvish is on the mound things get interesting. The Cubs pitcher is up and down start to start in frankly quite wild swings. On the other side we have the relative consistency of Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a 3.18 ERA on the season, although he has struggled a little since moving to the Mets. His ERA with the Mets is up at 4.58, having allowed 10 earned runs in four starts and 19 2/3 innings. However, this start has some good signs for Stroman. The Cubs are averaging just 2.25 runs per game in their last four and the weather is expected to suit pitching. Therefore, the Cubs to score under 4.5 runs has caught my eye in this one.
1u –CHI Cubs Under 4.5 Total Runs @ -145
This could be another fascinating game. Lucas Giolito has for the most part been superb this season so picking against him is not something I am willing to do. However, the weather is expected to suit hitting in a big way in this one and Michael Pineda has had a tendency to allow fly balls this season. If we take pitchers over 120 innings, he ranks 15th in fly ball percentage, and now he is pitching with strong winds blowing out from the plate. The White Sox have been mixed offensively in recent games, but the weather and the opposing pitcher have me looking at the White Sox to get five or more runs in this game, despite averaging less than four so far this season.
1u – CHI White Sox Over 4.5 Team Runs @ +120
On the surface of things this looks like a pitching matchup which should see the Rangers as favorites. However, the recent form of the two pitchers suggests why the odds are this way. Mike Minor has allowed three or more earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts. However, his last two road starts saw him shut down the Brewers and Indians, allowing zero earned runs in 15 innings and striking out 18. Hs recent issues have come at home, allowing 21 earned runs in his last five home starts. With the weather in Los Aneles expected to be pretty neutral. On the other side we have Andrew Heaney. Heaney has looked pretty good since returning, including shutting down the Rangers last time out to the tune of 14 strikeouts, one earned run and eight innings pitched. The Rangers struggle massively against left-handed pitchers and this could be another good outing for Heaney. The outcome of this feels like it depends which Minor we see, but given his ERA this season is only just above three I am backing another good outing and the under hitting in this game.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -118
This could be a fun pitchers duel to end the night. Cal Quantrill has been really good recently, allowing 11 earned runs in his last eight games. His home ERA is 2.98 and in his last five home starts he has allowed just six earned runs. Walker Buehler is the big question mark here with a 4.37 road ERA, including allowing five earned runs in Miami. His last four road starts have seen him allow 18 earned runs which is a concern. However, he has had recent success against the Padres and hopefully he can repeat that on the road.
1u – Under 8 Total Runs @ -111
By Ben Rolfe