We have a reasonably quiet Thursday on our hands with four games making up the early slate and six in the evening. Let’s see if we can find some value today.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Indians @ Tigers
I can see two potential plays in this, which all come off a similar theme of Mike Clevinger against the Tigers offense. Clevinger has a 3.00 ERA this season, and since returning from the injured list has been generally superb. In his last 10 starts he has allowed three or more earned runs just twice and has won seven of his last eight starts. Equally the Tigers offense averages just 3.3 runs per game at home this season and have scored less than three earned in seven of their last 10. The Indians offense has its issues but against Daniel Norris they should be able to score three or four runs as a minimum and cover against a team who covers less than 30% of the time at home.
1u – CLE Indians -1.5 @ -120
1u – DET Tigers Under 2.5 Team Runs @ +113
Mariners @ Rangers
The Rangers have been absolutely horrible in their last series against the Angels, but this should be a chance to get right. Firstly. After being pounded by Angels lefties they now get to face a right-handed pitcher in the form of Felix Hernandez. Hernandez will be making his first start in over two months and comes into a tricky situation, pitching as a righty in Globe Life Park in late August. The Rangers average 5.4 runs per game at home this season and have scored over five runs in 50% of their home games in August
1u – TEX Rangers Over 5.5 Team Runs @ -118
Padres @ Giants
Looking to the over in San Francisco can be a silly thing to do, but there are rare times when the weather really suits hitters, and today could be one of those. Combine that with the August struggles of Chris Paddack, who has allowed 19 earned runs in his four starts this month, and Dereck Rodriguez being generally inconsistent, and the over looks juicy here.
1u – Over 8 Total Runs @ -110
By Ben Rolfe