We finish the week with a bumper Sunday, including 16 games thanks to the double-header in St. Louis. Let’s take a look where we can find some value today.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
This is not a pretty game and line seems a little off when you look at the pitchers. Mile Mikolas has allowed five earned runs in each of his last two home starts in just 11 total innings. Tyler Mahle is 2-10 and has allowed 20 earned runs in his last five starts in 24 2/3 innings. With the weather suiting hitting in this one and the early start because of the double-header I can see this game having a lot of runs in it.
1u – Over 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees
The Athletics got a little shut down against Domingo German yesterday, but they should cash in today against JA Happ. The Athletics rank top five in wRC+ and ISO against lefties, and Happ has been pretty awful this season. He has a 6.70 ERA since the All-Star break and a 5.55 ERA at home this season. At home he has allowed opponents to hit for a .306 batting average, .528 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA. The Athletics should be able to score plenty of runs in this one and hit the over at 5.5.
1u – Oakland Athletics Over 5.5 Team Runs @ +114
Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves
This could be a fascinating game to watch in the late afternoon. Both Julio Teheran and Lucas Giolito have been incredible in 2019 and now they go head to head. Since the All-Star break Teheran has a 2.70 ERA and his season long ERA at home is just 3.00. He has had a couple of blips but for the large part he has been a dominant ace for this Braves team. Giolito has also been superb and especially so on the road. His road ERA this season is just 2.61, with an opposing batting average against of .211. The over tends to be the lean in games in Atlanta, but with these two on the mound the under looks the right play today.
1u –Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -115
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
This is an interesting game in the NL Wildcard race, and the pitching matchup favors the Mets. Arcus Stroman has not been great since coming to the Mets, but he was very good when he was with the Blue Jays. In contrast, Zach Eflin has struggled all season as a start, with a 4.63 ERA, and a 7.07 ERA since the All-Star break. The Mets have won the first two games in this series and I believe they can sweep this series as the underdog in the finale this evening.
1u – New York Mets ML @ +120
By Ben Rolfe