Sadly, Labor Day has been and gone and it is back to work, but the good news is that the weather is heating up again, and with that often comes fun and frantic baseball. Let’s take a look at where the value lies on a potentially high scoring Tuesday evening slate.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
This has the makings of a rough game for pitching in Cleveland. The temperature will be in the 80s and the wind is expected to be bowing outwards from the plate at double-digit speed. However, there is only one pitcher I am picking on here, because Mike Clevinger deserves respect. However, Dylan Cease is having a dreadful year. An ERA over six both at home and on the road, and a 7.03 ERA since the All-Star break. The Indians do not have the most potent offense in the majors, but they should be able to cash in on Cease and the White Sox in this one.
1u – Cleveland Indians Over 5.5 Team Runs @ -111
Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers
I am going back to the well on this one as Zack Greinke returns home to Milwaukee. The soft tossing righty will be desperate to put on a show back in his old stomping ground. On the road since the beginning of July he has allowed just seven earned runs in five starts. Equally Jordan Lyles has been good since coming to the Brewers, especially at home where he has allowed just two earned runs in three starts and 18 1/3 innings. Both offenses just seem to be finding things a little tough right now and Astros road games with a line between 8-and-9.5 have seen the under hit on 28-of-38 occasions this season.
1u –Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +110
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
This is a fascinating matchup because on one side we have the very in form Jack Flaherty and on the other side the very not in form Dereck Rodriguez, but the weather throws a slight spanner in the works. It is going to be hot and windy in St. Louis for this game, and right now that wind is expected to be very hitter friendly in terms of direction. Flaherty on the mound complicates the over, but the odds were so poor on the Cardinals team over and the odds on the game over are much better. Given that trade off in odds is essentially just an three runs needing to be scored (6-to-9) in hitter friendly condition, I am going to back the over here despite the threat of a Flaherty gem.
1u –Over 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Every time I put my faith in Mike Fiers, I find myself shaking my head a little more. However, he has earned that respect level with his performances this season. His home ERA is a superb 2.92, since the All-Star break it is 2.53, and following a terrible opening month he has never had a month-long ERA over three. In contrast, Jaime Barria has an ERA over six on the season and on the road those numbers get even uglier, with a 8.24 ERA and a .309 batting average against. Since the All-Star break, he has allowed 25 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings with 11 home runs and 13 walks. The majority of that damage did come in a single 10 earned run outing, but he has consistently allowed at least a couple of earned runs every start and has the potential to be taken apart on the right (well, wrong for him) day. The ATS numbers are not necessarily in favor of this but with this pitching matchup I will take the Athletics to cover at nice odds.
1u – Oakland Athletics -1.5 @ +120