Daily Picks: Angels Flying Low
As usual Friday sees a busy evening slate, with all 30 games taking to the field. There are some fascinating matchups, including Patrick Corbin versus Dallas Keuchel, the Yankees versus the Red Sox and Clayton Kershaw taking on the surprisingly strong Jeff Samardzija, so this should be a fun day of baseball.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
I really do not understand this line. Joe Musgrove has been woeful at home this season, with a 5.35 ERA and his ERA overall since the All-Star break is 5.60. Equally Miles Mikolas has really struggled away from home with a 6.11 ERA. Mikolas has been better overall in the second half, but his August numbers do not make good reading, with a 5.72 ERA. The over is absolutely dominant in games in Pittsburgh this season, with lines of 8-or-8.5 seeing the over hit 80% of the time, and I think we add another one to that count here.
1u – Over 8.5 Total Runs @ -110
A second day of nice pitching matchups in Atlanta could make for yet another low scoring day. Dallas Keuchel has bounced back from his initial struggles and has a 3.77 ERA since the All-Star break. Additionally, he has allowed just 12 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings at home this season, giving him a 2.38 ERA. As for Patrick Corbin, well he had been struggling on the road this season, with an ERA over 5.00 at one point. However, he has been really good since the All-Star break, with a 2.93 ERA in 61 1/3 innings. His road ERA is now down to 4.61, and I expect his good performances to continue into this start. The numbers on the season are fairly even in terms of the over/under, but all of the last four games in SunTrust Park have seen the under hit, and I think this one follows the pattern.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +113
This is a sneaky fun matchup between two reasonably young pitchers. Both pitchers have had good spells this season, and Lucas Giolito has a very nice 3.20 ERA on the season. He has had a couple of blips, and they have led to a 3.93 ERA at home. However, in his last 10 starts he has gone six innings at a minimum in all bar one of them and allowed more than three earned runs on just two occasions. Dillon Peters has a slightly worse ERA at 4.13, but he has the misfortune of facing the Astros regularly, and having to go into Texas to pitch from time to time. However, he has also been good in the large part. Nine of his last 10 outings have been starts, and he has allowed more than three earned runs just once in those nine starts. He does have some issues occasionally getting deep into games, but against a White Sox team who rank 23rd in OBP this season, that should hopefully not be an issue.
1u –Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -111
By Ben Rolfe