A quiet Monday nearly always means a busy Tuesday and we have no exception this week. All 30 teams take the field and there are some nice value opportunities for us to take a look at.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
The Mets managed to get behind their ace last night as they took the first game of the series 3-1 against the Diamondbacks. However, tonight is a different challenge as the Diamondbacks come into this one with the pitching advantage. Zac Gallen has a 2.25 ERA in his time with the Diamondbacks and a 2.08 ERA since the All-Star break. The young right-handed pitcher has been as good on the road as at home with a 2.54 ERA away from his home ballparks. Zack Wheeler is also pitching well recently, with a 3.42 ERA in the second half. However, for me the more complete team at this stage of the season is the Diamondbacks, so I will take them as the slight underdogs in this one.
1u – Arizona Diamondback ML @ +115
Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins
The struggles of Jose Berrios recently have pushed this line up over 10 and I think it is one to take advantage of. Yes, his second half ERA and August ERA are ugly, but at home his ERA is 3.62. He is also facing off against Anibal Sanchez, whose ERA is below 3.50 on the road in 2019. The wind is expected to be blowing out in this one, but only mildly, and 10.5 just feels a smidge too high.
1u – Under 10.5 Total Runs @ -115
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Both teams come into this game hot having beaten up on the weaker teams of the AL East. The Rangers have covered four straight and the Rays five straight. This is an interesting matchup because the Rays are winning over 60% away from home and the Rangers are at 57% at home. Similarly, the two pitchers are both pitching well. Ryan Yarbrough has a 2.33 ERA in the second half of the season and a 2.42 ERA on the road. Lance Lynn has a 3.65 ERA in the second half and a 3.86 ERA at home. When a game feels this tight I tend to lean to the better offense in their home ballpark, and that is even more so the case when I can get them as underdogs.
1u – Texas Rangers ML @ +115
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
We finish the night in Seattle where everybody’s new favorite whipping boy Trevor Bauer is on the mound. Bauer’s ERA since joining the Reds is 8.23 and considering he has allowed just seven earned runs in three home starts, that tells you how bad his road form is. In his four road performances as a Red he has allowed 25 earned runs in just 16 innings. With the Mariners averaging 4.71 runs per game at home it seems crazy not to take the value on the over when it comes to their team run line.
1u – Seattle Mariners Over 3.5 Runs @ -141
By Ben Rolfe