The playoff race is in full swing and we have some crunch games once again on Tuesday. However, there are other teams also thinking about their future, which can lead to value outside of those playoff games.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates
1u – Over 9 Total Runs @ -110
- When the line is set at 9-or-9.5 the over is 26-11-4 in Pirates home games and 20-12-1 in Mariners road games
This is one of those just take the numbers and ride them type picks. Mitch Keller has been significantly better at home than on the road but ERA still sits over 4.50 at home. Marco Gonzales comes in with a 4.42 road ERA and a 4.41 ERA in the second half. The over has hit in the last three Pirates games and three of the last four Mariners games, with Seattle averaging six runs per game in that period and the Pirates five runs per game.
Philadelphia Philles @ Atlanta Braves
1u – Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ +105
- Dallas Keuchel has a 2.10 ERA this season, and Vince Velasquez has an ERA over 6.00 since the start of August
The form of Keuchel is the key here, having allowed just four earned runs in his last 37 innings, of which 24 innings have been at home. Meanwhile Velasquez has allowed 17 earned runs in 20 innings across his last five stars, including 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on the road. The weather in this one is supposed to boost home runs, which also suits Keuchel. Keuchel allows just 18% of his batted balls to be fly balls, while Velazquez has a FB% over 45. I will take the pitcher that is in better form and has a tendency to keep the ball on the ground
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
1u – Under 8 Total Runs @ -110
- Miles Mikolas has a 2.91 ERA at home and Patrick Corbin has a 2.99 ERA in the second half of the season.
The two playoff rivals go head to head once again in St. Louis. This should be another fascinating game between two good teams, with solid pitchers on the mound. The weather is once again set to favor pitching at the under is 23-16-1 in St. Louis when the total is set at 8-or-8.5. This pitching matchup is not as good as last night but the Nationals offense has produced just 10 runs in their last four games. The Cardinals offense is hotter right now with 22 runs in their last four home games, but Patrick Corbin has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last seven starts, while going at least six innings in six of them.
Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
1u – Oakland Athletics -2 @ -105
- Jorge Lopez has a 6.09 ERA and has allowed 11 earned runs in his last four starts and 17 2/3 innings. Brett Anderson has allowed three or less earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts.
The Royals came back twice last night to stun and frustrate the Athletics in the ninth innings. However, I expect the Athletics to come bouncing back in a big way tonight against Lopez. The Athletics have won three of their last four as favorites and cover the spread over 55% of the time coming off a loss. Meanwhile the Royals cover the spread less than 44% of the time following a win. The Athletics cannot afford to be dropping games against the Royals if they want to seal home field advantage in the Wild card race, so expect a big push from them tonight.
By Ben Rolfe