This time of the year is mostly about the playoffs in the major leagues. However, with other teams not in the playoff race experimenting and trying different combinations, it can open up opportunities for value.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Sandy Alcantara has a 3.98 ERA on the road and has allowed just five earned runs in 23 innings in September. Mike Leake has allowed six earned runs in his last 26 innings.
This is not the most exciting game, but it does still have playoff implications as the Diamondbacks fight to get back in the NL Wild card race. On the surface the two pitchers in this game are not exciting but they are both in reasonably good form and after a couple of high scoring games this series is due a bit of a dud scoring wise.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +120
Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- When the line is set at 9-or-9.5 the over is 26-12-4 in Pirates home games and 20-13-1 in Mariners road games
Ok so this was a dud last night, but the numbers are in favor of simply rolling it back and going again. The Mariners allow an average of 5.66 runs per game away from home and the Pirates allow an average of 5.85 at home. The Pirates also average over 4.50 runs per game at home so I am expecting them to bounce back offensively tonight against a Justin Dunn led Seattle pitching staff.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -110
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
- Jeff Samardzija has a 3.63 ERA on the road and a 3.31 ERA since the All-Star Break and the Red Sox have won just 48% of games at home this season.
Samardzija has had a tough couple of outings in his last three starts but he has a chance to pick up a win here at solid value. This has been his best major league season since 2014 and heading into the last year of his contract he will be looking to finish strong in 2019. The Red Sox will be using a combination of Jhoulys Chacin and Mike Shawaryn to start this game, and if I have to pick I will take the Shark and an offense that got to seven runs last night over a messy bullpen game for the Red Sox.
1u – San Francisco Giants ML @ +146
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
The Rangers cover 58% of the time on the road ad have been responsible for three of Gerrit Cole’s worst outings this season
Once again this is just about value. Gerrit Cole is prone to the odd hiccup and the Rangers have been solid on the road this season. On their travels they have covered the spread in 59% of their games, and they will be desperate to get a win against their division and state rivals. I debated taking them straight up at over +300 but let’s just settle for a cover against a very good pitcher who can present opportunities for run scoring from time to time.
0.5u – Texas Rangers +1.5 @ +185
By Ben Rolfe