Daily Picks 09/19: Don't Sleep On The Royals
A weird split for Thursday as we actually have more games on the afternoon slate than the evening. Let’s take a look where we can find some value, including staying with backing underdogs which served us well yesterday.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
- Mike Soroka has a 4.18 ERA at home this season and has three of his four losses at home.
This may seem weird to be picking against someone with a 12-4 record and a 2.57 ERA, but all of Soroka’s struggles this season have come at home. His road record is a fantastic 7-1 with a 1.35 ERA. However, he is just 5-3 at home and that ERA is up above four. His matchup is tough today with the 12-5 Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies. Nola is coming off the back of a solid second half, in which he had a 2.52 ERA in both July and August. He has struggled in September, but this is crunch time for the Phillies, who need this win, while the Braves will already have their eyes on the playoffs.
1u – Philadelphia Phillies ML @ +140
- Eduardo Rodriguez has a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.32 ERA since the All-Star Break
What a treat we have this afternoon as veteran left-handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner squares off with the up and coming Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is as hot as anyone in the majors right now, allowing just five earned runs in his last six starts (39 innings). Bumgarner has had his struggles on the road this season, including allowing six earned runs in St. Louis and four in Arizona. However, the weather is expected to be extremely hitter friendly in this one, and we should see a low scoring affair in Fenway after a couple of high scorers to open the series.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -108
- Jordan Lyles has a 1.98 ERA in Miller Park as a Brewer. Joey Lucchesi has allowed less than four earned runs in seven of his last nine starts.
This is a massive game to end the series given the playoff implications in the NL Central. The Brewers need every in they can get to get into the playoffs, but it will not be easy in this game. Joey Lucchesi’s road numbers were badly damaged by an eight earned run outing in Colorado, but beyond that he had been solid on the road recently, allowing just five earned runs in his previous three starts. Lyles’ numbers speak for themselves. He has allowed just four earned runs in three starts and 18 1/3 innings in his new home ballpark, and I expect that trend to continue today.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -114
- Kyle Gibson has a 7.59 ERA in his last seven outings, and the Royals just pushed another playoff contender close on the road.
This one is a hunch as much as anything. Kyle Gibson has struggled recently, allowing 27 earned runs in his last 32 innings. The Royals come into this series with some confidence after pushing the Athletics close in all three games, winning one and losing the other two by a combined two runs. Mike Montgomery does not have a great road record, having allowed five earned in each of his last two, but with the way Gibson is pitching right now he just needs to be competent for the Royals to hang around in this one. The Royals are frisky right now and after that Athletics series no playoff team will want to face them.
0.5u – Kansas City Royals +2 @ +100
By Ben Rolfe