Daily Picks 09/20: Inflated ERA's In Milwaukee
Friday brings about a fresh set of series for us to enjoy. As always the Cubs kick us off in the afternoon, this time facing the Cardinals, before we get some entertaining games in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
- Anibal Sanchez has a 3.36 ERA on the road and Robert Duggar a 1.80 ERA at home this season
Given the motivation differences in this game there should be no doubt who the winner will be. However, the line being set at nine sees high. Both Anibal Sanchez and Robert Duggar have been better this season on the road and at home respectively. This game also has a feel of one where if the Nationals get up then the motivation for the Marlins to come back might melt away pretty fast. This is just the fifth game this year to have a line of nine or above in Miami. As for the Nationals, the under is 11-6-3 in road games with a line of 9-or-9.5 and even sits at 11-8-3 when the line is set at 8-or-8.5. There is no line currently available at nine so instead I am going to take the 8.5 on offer at +100.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
- The under is 21-17-3 in Milwaukee when the line is set at 9-or-9.5.
This is a strange game because both of these pitchers have inflated ERA’s due to a bad outing or two. 15 of Chase Anderson’s 64 earned runs this season have come in two road outings against the Nationals and Cubs. At home he has a 3.38 ERA and has allowed just three earned runs in his last three starts. Steven Brault’s ERA has exploded in the last week or so as he was taken for rive earned runs by a hot Cardinals team and then gave up 10 when pitching in nightmare weather in Chicago. Prior to that he had allowed over three earned runs just once in his previous eight starts.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -120
- Mike Fiers has allowed three or more earned runs four times in his last six starts.
The wheels have just started to come off the wagon of both of these pitchers lately. Mike Fiers has seen his ERA jump up over four after having a stunning season up until around a month ago. Mike Minor has also had some issues, but those have largely been when pitching in Texas. His road ERA this season is just 2.63 and I think he has a real chance of leaving Oakland with his 14th win given the way Fiers has been struggling recently.
1u – Texas Rangers ML @ +145
By Ben Rolfe