Daily Picks 09/21: Take The Unders

Saturday brings us our usual split slate with six games in the afternoon before nine in the evening. With many of the matchups having playoff implications, let’s take a look and see what value we can find.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

 - The under is 14-10 in Cincinnati when the line is set at 8-or-8.5 and 44-29-4 in total.

The Mets late charge for the playoffs has made this a really interesting game on this slate, and with the form of the two pitchers it could be a tight affair. Zack Wheeler has been superb in his last five starts. In those games he has thrown 31 innings and allowed just five earned runs while striking out 26. As for DeSclefani, he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last six starts (38 innings). The under has hit in four of the Mets last five games and three of the Reds last five.

1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -110

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cleveland Indians

 - The under is 33-18-1 in games in Cleveland with a line set at nine or above

This line immediately felt too high to me, but with Jason Vargas having a 5.18 ERA in August and 6.35 so far in September it is not a surprise. However, what is interesting to note is that Vargas has pitched just once on the road since the eighth of August. That was a solid two earned runs outing in Cincinnati in which he struck out 6 over 5 1/3 innings. As for Zach Plesac he has suffered a few rough outings recently but bounced back in a big way last time out in Los Angeles. Plesac threw a complete game shutout, allowing just four hits and two walks across nine innings. The Phillies have seen the under hit in four of their last five, and the Indians have seen it hit in their last four home games.

1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -120

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

 - Jose Berrios has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts (14 innings)

A few weeks ago, it was hard to see Berrios restricting anyone, but he has turned it around impressively in his last two starts. The Kansas City Royals average jut four runs per game on the road but have scored three runs or less in three of their last five road games. As we get closer to the playoffs the Twins and Berrios will be looking to have everything clicking in these final few starts of the season.

1u – Kansas City Royals Under 3.5 Team Runs @ +145

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

 - The under is 41-27-1 in games with a line set at 8-and-9.5 in Oakland and both teams have seen the under hit in four of their last five.

Well, Sean Manaea has hit the ground running since returning from the IL. In his three starts he has allowed one earned run in 18 innings with 21 strikeouts and six combined hits and walks. Today he faces an ice-cold Rangers offense that has scored three earned runs in this current road trip and four earned runs in their last four total games. As for the Athletics they have been solid offensively but not spectacular. Rangers pitcher Brock Burke has had a couple of rough outings the last two times out, but his first three starts of the season saw him allow just three earned runs in 18 innings.

1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -110

By Ben Rolfe