Daily Picks 09/23: All Eyes On Eflin

Monday sees a miniscule five game slate to start of an all-important week in the major leagues. However, four of the five games have some of playoff implications and the other one could be very high scoring, so despite the reduced slate there is a little bit of something for everyone today.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

- Zach Eflin has allowed just eight earned runs in his last six outings, including a seven innings shut out in Atlanta last time out.

This should be a fascinating game between two teams that still harbour playoff ambitions. Both pitchers have been impressive recently, with Eflin having a 1.19 ERA so far in September, and Patrick Corbin having a 2.00 ERA at home. In a game like this there are two angles to consider. The under and for the game to be close. The line in this one is officially set at nine, but the available odds are at 8.5, and games with a line of 9-or-9.5 in Washington have seen the under go 18-7-1. Additionally, the Phillies cover nearly 60% of the time on the road this season, so I am going to take both angles in this game.

1u – Philadelphia Philles +1.5 @ -120

1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -116

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

- Clay Buchholz has an ERA of 6.48 and Chandler Shepherd 4.91.

This is the only game of the day with absolutely no playoff implications, and the two pitchers will tell you why. Shepherd has allowed six earned runs through 11 innings in his three outings, and Buchholz has allowed four or more earned runs four times in his last 10 outings, including a seven earned run outing last time out in Baltimore. When these two sides faced off in Baltimore no game saw the score remain in single-digits and there was an average of a touch under 15 runs per game in the series.

1u – Over 10 Total Runs @ -102

By Ben Rolfe