Daily Picks 09/25: Hitters Favored In Windy City
With just five days left of the baseball season it is crunch time in the major leagues. There is not much left to squabble about playoff wise in the NL outside of home field advantage in the Wild card game. In the AL things are little more interesting with three teams competing for two Wildcard spots and the Yankees and Astros striving for home field advantage.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
- Drew Smyly has a 5.40 ERA on the road a 4.63 ERA in the second half
This series has demonstrated the differences that can appear due to motivation. The Phillies are not a much worse team than the Nationals, but with their playoff hopes extinguished the drive is just not there in the same way. The Nationals have won the first three games in this series and have covered in two of the three. With Drew Smyly on the mound for Phillies I expect the cover to come into play again. Anibal Sanchez does not have great numbers season long at home but did shutout the playoff bound Braves last time out at home.
1u – Washington Nationals -1.5 @ +125
- The over has hit in the last five straight games between these two teams, with an average of over 15 runs per game.
As I said yesterday let’s just keep rolling this back as long as the batters are in form and the pitchers have large ERAs. Yesterday felt like a quiet game between these two and still 15 runs were scored, with the Orioles covering the total by themselves. Today we get Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.65 ERA facing off against Jacob Waguespack and his 4.75 ERA.
1u – Over 10.5 Total Runs @ -115
- Ross Detweiler has a 6.98 ERA and the wind is expected to be heavily favoring hitters
Yesterday with favorable hitting conditions the Indians put up 11 runs against Carson Fulmer and Hector Santiago. Today they get to face Ross Detweiler who has struggled massively, allowing four or more earned runs in five of his last seven outings. With the weather favoring the hitters and the Indians looking to fight for a Wild card place expect to see them go after Detweiler aggressively in this one, having scored 21 runs combined in their last two outings.
1u – Cleveland Indians Over 6.5 Total Runs @ +113
- Zack Greinke has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts
So what, you might find yourself saying. It is the Mariners and the Astros, this is only going one way because Yusei Kikuchi has a 5.55 ERA this season. Kikuchi has struggled this season, but Greinke is not impervious to a bad day at the office. Therefore, if I can get close to +200 odds on a team getting 1.5 points, I am inclined to look at that team. It is unlikely and therefore I am only going to put down half a unit, but it adds some spice to an otherwise fairly mediocre encounter.
1u – Seattle Mariners +1.5 @ +178
By Ben Rolfe