Daily Picks 09/28: Phillies To Feast

Just two days remain in the 2019 regular-season. With only a handful of matches meaning anything tonight where can we find value on our final Saturday of a full schedule.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Cole Hamels has a 5.40 ERA on the road and a 6.39 ERA in the second half of the season
• Adam Wainwright has a 2.08 ERA at home and a 1.69 ERA in September

This game has a lot riding on it with the Cardinals looking to wrap up the NL Central Pennant and ensure they will not be competing in the wild card game. However, the Cubs will also be looking to throw a spanner in the works of their biggest rival this week. When you look at the pitching splits the Cardinals have a clear advantage, and when push comes to shove today, they should have enough to take it across the line. If they get into the lead early, then I question whether the Cubs will have the motivation to come back.

1u – St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 @ +110

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

• The Philadelphia Phillies average 5.04 runs per game at home
• Caleb Smith has a 5.03 ERA on the road, a 5.06 ERA in the second half and a 5.46 ERA in September

The Phillies got back into their groove last night and now they get a nice matchup against Caleb Smith in hitter friendly conditions. I never like trusting the Marlins offense too much, so the play here is to take the Phillies offense to get five or more runs against Smith.

1u – Philadelphia Phillies Over 4.5 Total Runs @ -125

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Garrett Richards has allowed seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings since returning from his elbow injury
• Robbie Ray has struggled with a 7.16 ERA in September, but his home ERA this season is 3.93 and he has made just two home starts since August 4th.

This game does not have a huge amount riding on it and that always worries me a little. However, Garrett Richards has really struggled since returning from injury and the Diamondbacks have been impressive at home relative to many other teams when it comes to covering the spread. Interestingly, they have covered the spread at home as often as they have won, at 53.2% of the time. Covering the spread over 50% of the time at home is good, with just eight teams sitting over the 50% mark.

1u – Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +125

By Ben Rolfe