Daily Picks 10/01: NL Wild Card Game
The NL wild card game will be contested between the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers in the capital. Can the Brewers upset the Nationals, or will Max Scherzer and his offense march on to meet the Dodgers.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
1u – Washington Nationals -1.5 @ +115
- The Nationals have won eight straight, covering seven in that time
- Per statschecker the Milwaukee Brewers are 32-34-15 ATS on the road this season
This game should be incredibly easy to call, except for the recent form of Max Scherzer. In his last five starts he has allowed 17 earned runs in 29 2/23 innings. For a pitcher with a season long 2.92 ERA that is a bad run of form, which has me concerned. However, Scherzer does have the backing of an offense which is playing extremely well right now, having scored 54 runs in their last eight games. In contrast, the Brewers head to Washington off the back of a series in Colorado where their bats suddenly went cold, as they scored just five runs in their final two games of the season. Additionally, while Milwaukee come in having won 20 of their 27 games in September, the level of competition they have faced has been questionable. Since September 8th the Brewers have faced just one team with a winning record, so against stiff competition there is a risk they may not be able to up their level enough.
1u – Over 7.5 Total Runs @ -116
- The Nationals are averaging 6.8 runs per game over their last eight games
- The over is 41-35-5 in Nationals home games and the over is 6-4-1 in games with a line of 7.5 or below
The form of Max Scherzer makes the over feel a better play here than it would otherwise. Allowing over three runs per game is significant for a pitcher of his quality and when you combine that with the current offensive form of the Nationals the over is the play in this one.
By Ben Rolfe