Daily Picks 10/07: Twins To Keep It Close
Monday brings us our final day of the 2019 season which will feature more than two games. With the NLDS series hanging in the balance, and the underdogs fighting for their lives in the ALDS, expect some fascinating baseball today.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
1u – Under 2.5 Runs in the First 3 Innings @ -125
- Charlie Morton has a 2.59 ERA at home, and a 2.70 ERA the first time through an opposing order this season
- Zack Greinke has a 2.64 ERA on the road, and a 2.19 ERA the first time through an opposing order this season
This has been a series dominated by pitching and there is no reason to think that will not be the case once again today. Both Greinke and Morton has been super for the large part this season, especially the first time through the order. So far there has yet to be a single run scored in the first three innings of either game, and I think we see another low scoring start in this one as well.
Can be backed at FanDuel!
1u – Los Angeles Dodgers ML @ +125
- Max Scherzer has a 5.40 ERA in September/October this season
- Rich Hill has allowed one earned run in 5 2/3 innings since returning from injury
Another fascinating game awaits in this series and I am picking against the Nationals again today. As I said yesterday, per statschecker, the numbers are fairly even, with the Dodgers having won 58% of games on the road this season, good enough for the fourth best number in the league. However, the Nationals have won a sixth best 62% of games at home this season.
Scherzer struggled in the wild card game, continuing a trend of poor performances from the end of the regular season. However, Hill has looked solid in his return, and although he likely will not go deeper than four or five innings, if he can keep it tight early then the Dodgers could keep hold of their lead and clinch the series with a game to spare.
1u – Minnesota Twins +1.5 @ -120
- Jake Odorizzi has a 3.42 ERA at home this season
- Luis Severino had a 3.99 ERA on the road last season, compared to 2.57 at home.
This game is all about motivation for me. The Twins absolutely have to win this game, their first home playoff game since 2010, when they lost to… the New York Yankees. The Twins have in fact not won a playoff game since 2004, and this is their big opportunity to change that. Jake Odorizzi has been fantastic this season, and with the weather expected to depress home runs, he should have a chance to be fantastic once again. In contrast, Luis Severino has thrown just 12 innings this season, and the three innings he threw on the road is where he gave up his only two earned runs. Now that does not mean a huge amount, but Severino did have more issues on the road than at home last season, so that is a factor. Between the motivation to break a massive losing streak, the weather likely to depress scoring, and arguably their ace on the mound, I fully expect the Twins to at least keep this one close.
By Ben Rolfe