Daily Picks 10/09: LA To Dodge NLCS

Two Game 5’s in the NLDS is just what you want as a baseball fan. Throw in four very good pitchers and four fairly evenly matched teams and things get even more exciting. Let’s see where we can find some value in the lines this evening.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

1u – Under 4.5 Runs in the first five innings @ -128

- Jack Flaherty has a 0.91 ERA the first time through an opponent batting order this season

- Mike Foltynewicz has given up just five earned runs in 30 innings since the start of September

This is an incredibly tough game to call, with two amazing starters on the mound. Both have really stepped it up the last month or so with the Folynewicz 1.50 ERA since the start of September being made to actually look bad by Flaherty and his 0.82 ERA in that time. This game is a prime candidate for not looking at the overall total, with both teams’ bullpens having had issues in this series. 14 of the 29 runs scored in this series came after the seventh innings of the games, compared to just 15 in the other 28 combined innings.

For me this has the makings of a pitching duel for six or seven innings before potentially exploding into life when both teams get desperate in the final two or three innings. Take the under in the first half and then hopefully with a win under your belt sit back and watch the fireworks that make up the final game of a series.

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Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

1u – Washington Nationals ML @ +140

- The Washington Nationals have won 11 of their last 13 games

- Stephen Strasburg has allowed just two earned runs in his last 22 innings

Call this a hunch but I really think the Nationals can pull this one off. Both teams are in really good form right now and the winner is so tight, but that is why +140 offers value I want to jump on. Walker Buehler has had the odd issue at home in the last month, while Strasburg is perhaps pitching the best he has all season. The numbers in terms of home and road across the season tell you the Dodgers are the right bet here, but this is the deciding game of the NLDS, so you can throw out those numbers because this is very different. In fact,  give Strasburg the nod here because he has already been lights out in a similar situation in the NL wild card game.

1u – Under 7 Total Runs @ -108

- Per statschecker, the under is 43-35-5 in Dodgers home games this season

- Three of the four games in this series have seen seven or less runs scored

We have four fantastic pitchers taking to the mound tonight and we should see some tight, exciting, low scoring baseball because of it. The difference between here and the Braves Cardinals game is that I think the late innings bullpens in this game can lock it down when the starters come out, which with these two on the mound should be the sixth innings or later.

By Ben Rolfe