Daily Picks 10/17: Must Win For The Yankees

Ben Rolfe picks his best bets for tonight's MLB playoff action
Ben Rolfe
Thu, October 17, 10:26 AM EDT

After weather delayed the continuation of the series between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros last night the teams take to the mound Thursday for Game 4. With the Astros leading 2-1 it is getting close to do-or-die time for this Yankees team in 2019.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

Houston Astros @ New York Yankees

 

1u – New York Yankees ML @ -130

 

- Per Statschecker, the New York Yankees won 70% of their home games this season

- Masahiro Tanaka has a 3.10 ERA at home this season, and has allowed just one earned run through 11 innings this postseason

 

This game is an absolute must-win for the Yankees. They have their best pitcher so far in the postseason on the mound and they are facing the weakest of the trio of aces for the Astros. With Cole and Verlander coming back up later in the series, the Yankees need to win this to ensure they only have to beat one of them and not both.

The numbers for Tanaka are very good outside of just the earned runs. He has allowed just four hits, walked just two hitters and struck out 11. He has not been simply getting lucky by any means, and after a day off yesterday the bullpen should be well rested to finish off the game. In contrast, Greinke is struggling in the postseason. 9 2/3 innings, 12 hits, one walk and a nine earned runs is not an ideal line for the veteran right-hander. The Yankees should be able to score enough runs here to take the victory in this game they simply cannot afford to lose.

1u – Over 8.5 Total Runs @ -105

 

 - The wind is expected to be blowing strongly out from the pate in this game

 - In Zack Greinke’s two starts this season he has allowed a total of nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

 

This pick is simply about the weather and situation. The Yankees put up seven runs in Houston in weather neutral conditions the last time Greinke pitched against them. Now they are expected to get extremely hitter friendly weather conditions, which should mean they get close to that total again, as we see a contribution from the Astros to the scoreboard this time as well.

However, this is a MAJOR caveat to this pick. If the weather forecast changes and the expected wind dies down, then this turns into a stay away. The numbers are completely in the favor of the under here overall. Tanaka has a 3.10 ERA at home, Greinke has an ERA below three on the road, the under is 11-4 between 8-and-8.5 in Yankees home games and 14-8 in Astros road games. If there are the expected 15-20 mile per hour winds approaching game time, then this is a solid bet on the over. If the win is closer to 10 then I am just betting the result and staying clear of the total.

Ben Rolfe
@benrolfe15
Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!
Nov 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
-4.55%
0Betslip

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