World Series: Game Seven Picks

Here we are. The 2019 baseball season comes down to one game in which to decide its champion. Amazingly we have yet to see a home team win a game in this World Series. This will also be the sixth single game decided of these playoffs if you include the two Wildcard games. The Nationals will be playing in their third and the Astros in their second. Who will take home that coveted trophy tonight?

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros

1u – Washington Nationals ML @ +125

• In domes Zack Greinke has allowed nine earned runs in his two starts in these playoffs
• Max Scherzer is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in these playoffs

Backing the underdog and/or the road team has been a successful value play for me in these playoffs so far and when Max Scherzer is getting these sorts of odds it is hard to look elsewhere. Even if you can only get him at +120 it is worth it. Yes, there are questions about his health, but in a one-game shootout like this, pitchers can often pitch through niggles and pain and still be quite effective. Scherzer has also got the experience of multiple World Series appearances on his side, to go with victories as well. Greinke does not have the same experience in these situations and has so far struggled in these playoffs. Greinke has yet to register a win in these playoffs and has struggled with a 1.61 WHIP through his four starts so far. I am taking the Nationals and Scherzer to complete the job and paint Houston red and white tonight.

1u – Over 7.5 Total Runs @ +100

• Five of the six games in this series have seen the over hit
• The Nationals have scored 24 runs Houston in this series

Much like last night the under should be the way to go here, but I cannot do it. No one feels the pressure of a game 7 more than the pitchers and that can have a funny way of showing itself. I discussed Zack Greinke’s struggles above, and when you contrast his indoor and outdoor performances in these playoffs, they are a stark contrast. Additionally, Greinke has managed to go beyond five innings just once so far in the post season. The Astros bullpen has struggled mightily in this series, and the Nationals could easily get close to five or six runs all by themselves in this one.

0.5u – Juan Soto to hit a home run @ +325

• Juan Soto has hit five home runs in the post season, including three in this series
• Soto hit 28 runs off right-handed pitchers in the regular season, and owns a .303 ISO against righties

The numbers really speak for themselves. Soto is immensely talented and appears to not be fazed by playing in a World Series at the age of 20/21 (he turned 21 during the series). This young superstar has already put his name on the map, but a home run in Game 7 of the World Series could be more than possible for this extremely talented youngster.

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By Ben Rolfe