MLB Picks: Monday Major League Baseball Parlay

3-Team Parlay - $50 Wager Wins $303.08

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds

(1u) Reds to win @ +106

• Reds batters are hitting .317 lifetime off Jon Lester with 12 home runs
• Wade Miley is 6-3 in his career against the Cubs

It was an ugly opening series for the Reds this past weekend, as they put up just 13 runs and went 1-2 against a rebuilding Tigers team. On the other side, the Cubs won a series against division rival Milwaukee, but I’m playing the matchups here.

Lester has struggled in his career against current Reds hitters. On top of the 12 home runs he’s allowed, he’s also given up 20 XBH and the Reds have a .610 slugging percentage against the lefty. Not to mention, he’s coming off a year that saw him put up his highest ERA since 2012.

Wade Miley has pitched the Cubs decently well, and his career has been trending in the opposite direction of Lester’s.

I’m looking for a bounce-back games from the Reds and I’m getting them at + odds.

Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays

(1u) Rays to win @ -140

• Tyler Glasnow allowed more than two runs once in 12 regular season starts in 2019

The last time we saw Tyler Glasnow, he was getting rocked by Houston in Game 5 of the ALDS. But Glasnow had offseason wrist surgery and has reportedly been throwing harder this year than he did all of last season.

During the regular season in 2019 Glasnow was a force for the Rays, racking up a 1.78 ERA and striking out 74 batters while only walking 14 in 60 2/3 IP.

I love Glasnow at 100% health against a Braves team that played a game in New York less than 24 hours ago. The Atlanta bats finally woke up on Sunday but I don’t like them coming into Tampa against a good pitcher on a short turnaround.

I flirted with the run line, but -140 is just enough to keep me locked in on the moneyline.

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox

(1u) Total runs over 11.5 @ +100

• The Red Sox finished their opening series with the best batting average (.297) in Major League Baseball
• Boston’s opener, Josh Osich, has never started a game in the Majors

I know, I know, 11.5 runs is a lot. My first instinct was to go under, too, but the over is sticking out here to me.

For starters, even though they won't contend this year, the Red Sox can still hit the ball. They averaged more than six runs per game in their opening series against the Orioles and are hitting .297 this season.

To make things better for the over, the Red Sox are using Josh Osich as a true opener, giving him an inning or two before they let the rest of the bullpen take over, and he’s never started a Major League Baseball game.

The Red Sox will put up runs against Mets starter Michael Wacha, and I expect the Osich, Zack Godley and whoever else comes out of the ‘pen for Boston to struggle in these unique circumstances.

Despite the big number, the over looks to be the play here.