San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Can Lamet maintain masterful work?
Matt Zylbert
Thu, July 30, 12:27 PM EDT

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Probable pitchers: Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (0-0, 4.50 ERA)

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Predictions

Following a sharp season debut, all need not be reminded anymore about the extraordinary potential of Lamet. The 28-year-old is establishing himself as a legitimate top-tier major league starter.

Further evidence of this was on display last Saturday, when Lamet kicked off his campaign by shackling the Arizona Diamondbacks to just one run in five suffocating innings of work. He walked only one and struck out eight.

It’s those overpowering performances that have Lamet positioned for such a bright future. After all, he’s exhibited this both before undergoing Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago — and after returning.

In his first campaign back last season, Lamet looked terrific, ultimately holding opponents to a minuscule .226 batting average in his 14 starts. He also notably notched 12.95 K/9, which would have ranked him second in baseball among starters — behind only Gerrit Cole — had he registered enough innings to qualify.

Lamet is an ascending pitcher and it will be sooner rather than later when he’s drawing over/unders of no more than 7.5 in pitcher’s parks like the one he’ll be working from this evening. It will also help for this particular start that he’s squaring off with one of the weaker lineups around.

If Lamet can churn out another one of his usual gems, that would give us plenty of leeway in regards to the other starter, Gausman, who has a reputation of being a little volatile. However, I believe we’ll get the good version of the 29-year-old.

Don’t be confused by Gausman’s disappointing showing from last year. The former Baltimore Oriole managed to record a career-best 10.03 K/9, but he also dealt with a severity of bad luck, as opposing hitters managed a plain unfair .344 batting average on balls out in play.

It’s also beneficial riding Gausman in this specific spot. He’s been very adamant about his preference to start, and thus, a motivated Gausman not taking this outing for granted and having his stuff working can provide enough for an under here.

Bet: UNDER 8 (-105)

MLB Picks & Leans - Thursday July 30 Slate

WAS/TOR Over 9.5

CLE/MIN Under 8.5

Check out all the latest MLB odds for tonight's games. Oddschecker's grids compare all the odds from the sportsbooks so you can always find the best odds available. 

Zylbert’s 2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 3-3, -0.35 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Pirates Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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