Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB Over/Under Bet: Calling for a Bauer outage

Matt Zylbert
Sat, August 1, 12:39 PM

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Probable pitchers: Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.42 ERA) vs. Michael Fulmer (0-0, 13.50 ERA)

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers Predictions

In Bauer we trust.

That’s pretty much the foundation for prognosticating the over/under in this one. Bauer is coming off a real sharp season debut — against this same opponent six days ago, in fact — limiting the Tigers to a mere one run on two hits while gobbling up 13 K’s compared to only one walk.

It can be true how hitters will naturally have more of an edge facing a pitcher that they just saw a handful of days ago but in this instance, I like the situation to tilt in the favor of Bauer.

Since it was his first assignment — and a very successful one — it provides a blueprint for how the former No. 3 overall draft pick can continue going about his business. In other words, he already has a game plan to stifle Detroit and just needs to execute once again (similar to Luis Castillo and Spencer Turnbull in their follow-up outings in last night’s opener).

Considering how motivated Bauer is after his relatively disappointing campaign a year ago (not to mention the offseason events he was involved with), it looks like a solid bet the right-hander will keep rolling.

Of course, there’s another starting pitcher involved, too — and not even one that will be aiming to eat up most of the ballgame.

Fulmer, the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year, used to do that quite well before missing the last year-and-change due to injury. Thus, he’s been inserted into “opener” role, at least for the beginning of the season, but it’s also one where the Tigers are giving him a few frames to deal.

Though he struggled in his first appearance back, Fulmer is still someone that can be trusted to put up mostly zeroes, especially when he’s in his comfort zone. That can definitely apply to today’s “start,” as the 27-year-old has performed significantly better during the daytime (3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) than at night (4.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) in his career.

The main question then becomes: can the bullpen be trusted? Well, from what I gather, Tyler Alexander, who was impressive in his first taste of the bigs last season, will be leaned upon for a chunk of innings, and so long as they can provide the bridge to Detroit’s late-inning relief core, that would put us in a desirable position, believe it or not. The Tigers are in the upper-half of baseball with a team 3.52 ERA from the seventh inning or later.

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers Best Bet

Bet: UNDER 9 (-113)

August 1 MLB Leans

HOU/LAA Under 9.5

NYM/ATL Over 10

TEX/SF Under 8.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 3-5, -2.56 units

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Angels Under 9.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.

Jul 2020

Record

Wins

2

Losses

1

Push

0

ROI

32.40%

0Betslip

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