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Sunday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Tracking Allard in season debut

Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Kolby Allard (-.-- ERA) vs. Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 11.25 ERA)

Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions

Don’t be fooled by Allard’s 4.96 ERA from his nine-start showcase a year ago. It was the 22-year-old southpaw’s first extended experience at the big league level and all things considered, he actually fared well.

Allard was solid in the majority of those assignments, yielding three runs or fewer in two-thirds of them. The former first-round draft pick has notable potential and I’m willing to bet on him beginning his ascension in this buy-low spot. Games in San Francisco rarely draw totals of 9, so this is an opportunity to capitalize on a real high-ceiling hurler being involved and capable of putting under bettors in range.

San Francisco’s been slugging the ball lately but throughout the last couple of seasons, they’re typically not as good with a lefty on the hill. In each of the last two campaigns, the Giants ranked in the bottom third of baseball in team batting average against left-handed pitching — and their current .245 mark is exactly where it was at the conclusion of last year.

Allard will be on a pitch count of about 80, and while that won’t allow him to go too deep into the ballgame, he still has the ability to eat up most of the innings and pave the way for a real tackle back-end of the Texas bullpen.

Then there’s the veteran Samardzija, who isn’t coming off any sort of pleasant 2020 debut. He got whacked for five runs in four innings but in The Shark’s defense, it came opposite a San Diego Padres lineup that is mostly mashing.

Here, Samardzija gets a crack at a Rangers offense that hasn’t exactly gotten it going yet. He also gets to battle them in his — and any pitcher’s, really — place of preference within the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. A mere quality start can get the job done for us.

Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers Best Bet

Bet: UNDER 9 (-110)

Sunday's MLB Leans

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: LEAN - Under 9.5

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: LEAN -  Under 10

Matt Zylbert's 2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 3-5-1, -2.56 units

Yesterday’s Results: Reds-Tigers Under 9 (PPD), Rays-Orioles Under 9 (“Push”)


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