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Saturday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Capitalizing on the disrespect in LA

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (0-0, 4.40 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.26 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels Predictions

Oh wow, just wow. Typically, totals of 9 in Anaheim have been more scarce than not throughout the years, even with not-so-strong starting pitchers as the probables. In this instance, however, we have an impending battle between two LA aces.

Thus, an over/under this high (and it’s still possible it goes higher!) is simply just flat out disrespectful to the talents of both Buehler and Heaney, who are both overpowering enough to compete for Cy Young honors in their respective leagues

Heaney’s most recent outing was the left-hander’s first dud of 2020 (though it came in Texas where he’s struggled). Before that, though, he was looking much like the pitcher that I pegged as my No. 1 sleeper entering the campaign, so we’ll chalk up his last start as a rare blip in what should be a strong showing for a healthy Heaney.

In his first three starts, Heandog yielded a total of only four runs while garnering 15 K’s in 15.1 innings pitched. Look for him to get back into that type of groove as early as this evening. Yes, Dodgers pose an intimidating threat at the dish but this actually isn’t a bad spot at all for Heaney.

It’s a batting order that ranked in the bottom third of the majors opposite left-handed pitching as a team in each of the last two years and they’re currently on pace for that low barometer once again. A third of the way through the season, the Dodgers have managed just a .207/.298/.379 slash line off lefties — and tonight they get one of the better AL ones.

Buehler can be just as dominant as his counterpart. While he hasn’t quite shown it yet this season, the young right-hander is getting there and fortunately for us, this assignment follows up his strongest performance in the early going, when he held the the San Francisco Giants to one hit and run, striking out a season-high six.

Given where the over/under sits, this is a good buy-low opportunity for two starters who are clearly trending up. I feel comfortable trusting both to do their thing in keeping the final tally under the number.

Bet: UNDER 9 (+103)

Saturday's MLB Leans

CLE/DET Under 7.5

TB/TOR Under 11

BOS/NYY Under 9

SD/ARI Over 9.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 5-15-2, -12.07 units

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Giants Under 9

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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