Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: MLB Over/Under Picks

Mr. Over/Under is back with his pick for Sunday's Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros game
Matt Zylbert
Sun, August 16, 8:29 AM EDT

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Justus Sheffield (1-2, 5.27 ERA) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (2-1, 6.10 ERA)

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Predictions

The numbers aren’t exactly desirable so far for Justus Sheffield and Lance McCullers but each pitcher’s most recent start should tell us all we need to know about the direction they’re headed in.

McCullers, of course, is in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Understandably, like it would for any human in any position after a long time away, it’s taken him some time to settle back in and regain his feel. Well, after his last outing, it’s pretty clear the 26-year-old is returning to prime form, something that will have him positioned as an upper echelon starter in the seasons to come.

Facing the San Francisco Giants at home on Monday, McCullers delivered a stellar performance, even carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Extra emphasis on the “at home” part, as the right-hander has typically fared far better when working within the confines of Minute Maid Park. His career stats at home (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) easily dwarf what he’s logged on the road (5.06 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).

He’ll also be getting a familiar opponent in this assignment, one he’s had notable success against since first arriving in the big leagues. In fact, McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 10.64 K/9 in 12 career lifetime meetings, which includes a quality start opposite the M’s a few weeks ago.

As for his counterpart, Sheffield is also coming off a standout performance — perhaps the best of his still-young career.

En route to claiming his first Major League victory, Sheffield twirled six shutout innings against a potent Colorado Rockies lineup, yielding only four hits and striking out seven compared to issuing zero walks.

Sheffield has a high ceiling; that’s why he was the main get for Seattle when they dealt away a perennial American League Cy Young contender like James Paxton a couple of years ago. As part of this bet, I will entrust the young southpaw to keep making strides in harnessing his talents, and if that’s the case, he’ll come in handy.

Bet: UNDER 9 (+105)

MLB Leans - August 16

NYM/PHI Under 9

BOS/NYY Over 10

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 5-16-2, -13.07 units

Yesterday’s Result: LAD/LAA Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Under 9 @ +105

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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