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Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Eyeing a curious total for Roark vs. Milone

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tanner Roark (1-1, 6.00 ERA) vs. Tommy Milone (1-2, 4.00 ERA)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions

Really wanted to grab this game at 10, seeing as how last night’s contest featured that same total with a similar pitching matchup, but at the same time, it’s telling that the linesmakers are on 9.5.

The argument can be made that while Tanner Roark is more established, Nate Pearson — who pitched for Toronto last night — has the higher ceiling every time he takes the hill. And on the other side was Wade LeBlanc, a comparable softer-tossing lefty to teammate Tommy Milone.

In other words, they are avoiding going to 10 because they know what both of these starters are capable of. And each is on the verge of going back in a positive direction.

Milone has actually been one of the best starters thus far for an overachieving club. Since an off outing on Opening Day, the 10-year veteran has settled in nicely and kept the O’s in each game with solid work.

He had a nice back-to-back-start stretch in which he yielded only one run across 11 innings combined, and while that came to an end in his most recent assignment, it’s hard to blame the left-hander. Milone was facing the same opponent for the second time in eight days (a tough feat for any starter who doesn’t throw particularly hard) and poor defense also played a role.

In this start, he draws a division rival that is not only wounded right now (Bo Bichette) but one that will also be without other regulars (Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen, Rowdy Tellez) in the lineup today, being a day game after a nighttime affair. As it is, the Blue Jays are second from the bottom in the American League with a .223 team batting average on the road.

As for Roark, there are certain guys where you know they’re about to turn it around much sooner than later. Enter the 33-year-old, who will be in the right setting to finally go beyond the fifth inning this year.

For his career, Roark has registered just about three-quarters of a run fewer when pitching with the sun out (3.27 ERA) compared to at night (4.00 ERA). He’s also done a fine job keeping the ball in the yard more frequently during the daytime (0.84 HR/9) than later (1.16 HR/9), too.

Bet: UNDER 9.5 (-104)

MLB Leans - August 19

HOU/COL Over 12.5

TEX/SD Under 8

LAD/SEA Under 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 6-17-3, -13.2 units

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Diamondbacks Under 9.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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