Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: MLB Over/Under Picks

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Turnbull needs to be trusted
Matt Zylbert
Thu, August 20, 8:14 AM EDT

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Probable pitchers: Spencer Turnbull (2-1, 2.78 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (1-2, 4.88 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions

For those who don’t believe in Spencer Turnbull, well, it’s time to do so pronto.

If you thought nothing of the 27-year-old right-hander following his deceiving 3-17 campaign of a year ago, you really should feel foolish. Turnbull is out to a sensational start through his first four starts, honing a 2.78 ERA, but most impressively, he’s held opposing batters to a minuscule .210 average, ranking him in the top-20 in the majors. He’s also still striking out about a batter per inning — just like last season.

While Turnbull ultimately finished with a pedestrian 4.61 ERA in 2019, he definitely looked better than that. Turnbull actually came away with a 3.99 FIP, indicating he should’ve been closer to a sub-4.00 ERA.

The unfortunate thing is that Turnbull really showed what he’s capable of all the way up to the All-Star break, when he sat on a cool 3.31 ERA through 17 starts. The third-year Tiger suffered an injury shortly after the Midsummer Classic and that obviously affected him the rest of the way.

He’s been so good thus far that he hasn’t even allowed a homer yet, which is something that can greatly aid this bet considering how dependent the White Sox can be trying to crank one out of the yard.

On the other side is the much more heralded pitcher in this matchup, Lucas Giolito, who has quickly bounced back after a troublesome Opening Day outing.

Although he yielded five runs (four earned) in five innings last time out, Giolito had fired three straight quality starts before that. Facing a Tigers team today that he can handle — in a day game following a nighttime affair, no less — I believe Giolito will be closer to that form.

It can only help that the Chicago right-hander gets to work during the afternoon. For his career, Giolito owns far superior numbers with the sun out (3.43 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) than under dark skies (5.36 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). One of his typical solid starts should help get us our desired outcome.

BET: UNDER 8.5 (-112)

MLB Leans - August 20

NYM/MIA Under 9.5

CLE/PIT Under 7.5

CIN/STL Over 8

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 7-17-3, -12.2 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Orioles Under 9.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Tigers vs. White Sox Under 8.5 @ -112

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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