San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Over/Under Picks

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Gallen just keeps gallopin’
Matt Zylbert
Sat, August 22, 1:05 PM

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 9:15 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.40 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (0-1, 4.84 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions

While it didn’t get as much fanfare as it should have, Zac Gallen recently set a Major League record for most consecutive starts yielding three runs or fewer to begin one’s career. And his streak is still going.

The previous mark, which belonged to Steve Rogers, was 18. Gallen is now at 20 straight such outings, and counting. His last start — probably his finest work of the campaign so far when he held the Oakland A’s to one run on three hits — proves that the second-year right-hander isn’t at all content with his place in history and impressively just wants to keep going.

And a run like this can be very valuable if involved with a relatively high over/under. Even with the total dropping to 8.5 in a lot of places, that’s still a fine number to get (although you should wait for 9 again anyway), as Gallen pretty much assures us a quality performance while eating up most of the ballgame for the away side.

He hasn’t just been “getting by,” too. The right-hander is punching out 10.8 K/9 to rank him 15th among all qualified starters. Additionally, opposing hitters have managed just a .211 clip off Gallen, which is tied for the 22nd-lowest BAA in MLB.

Even in a worst-case scenario of Gallen yielding more than three runs for the first time ever, there’s still some room for error. That’s where Gallen’s counterpart this evening, Tyler Anderson, comes in handy.

Though he’s not any sort of big name, the 30-year-old southpaw is actually a pretty solid pitcher and appears to have settled in to his new starting gig — his first in the bigs outside of hitting-friendly Colorado.

Anderson did give up five runs his last time out but he also struck out a season-high eight across five innings. To me, that’s a sign he’s getting comfortable in his new digs, as Anderson flashed the potential of a strikeout artist previously.

Another key item to like about the five-year veteran in this spot is that he’s always been more consistent at home — even when residing at Coors Field. His career ERA at home (4.16) is more than a full run lower than it is on the road (5.36). And now he gets to pitch regularly in one of the best parks in baseball for pitchers.

Additionally, Anderson is drawing an opponent that hasn’t been too successful against left-handers this season. The D-backs are 23rd in team OPS (.640) in that category, cranking out only four homers in more than 200 ABs with a lefty on the hill.

Bet: UNDER 9 (-123)

MLB Leans - August 22

COL/LAD Under 8.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 7-19-3, -14.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: PHI/ATL Under 8.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Giants vs. Diamonbacks Under 9 @ -123

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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