Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

Monday's MLB picks from the master of the Over/Under
Matt Zylbert
Mon, August 24, 1:50 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tanner Roark (2-1, 4.76 ERA) vs. Blake Snell (2-0, 3.00 ERA)

Oh man are the linesmakers making a potentially grave mistake. Totals that exceed 8 have never been common for games emanating from Tropicana Field, let alone with one of Tampa’s best pitchers in franchise history ready to go.

Such is the case here as Blake Snell gets the assignment — and against a relatively steady starter in Toronto’s Tanner Roark.

True, Snell has not gone more than five innings in a start yet this year. Obviously, though, he’s not being limited anymore and that hunger to dominate is only intensified in the case of Snell. Best of all, he draws a foe whom he’s shackled often.

The former American League Cy Young Award winner has had 12 lifetime dates with the Blue Jays, crafting a desirable 2.78 ERA and 10.95 K/9 in those starts. He’s been so stingy when dealing with this opponent that their projected lineup today is collectively hitting only .153 (9-for-59) off the left-hander with 30 strikeouts.

Furthermore, we’ll benefit from Snell working at home today. For his career, the 27-year-old has registered an ERA that is more than a full run-and-a-half lower in Tampa Bay (2.45) than it is on the road (4.01). Helping his cause is the fact the Jays are hitting just .225 in away games.

As for Roark, we had and won the under in his last outing largely thanks to my belief that he would begin to turn his season around. The eight-year veteran was solid and I maintain he will continue to be solid.

Just like in his most recent assignment, Roark gets another one during the afternoon. This is notable because he’s been considerably better throughout his career when toeing the rubber under the sun (3.25 ERA, 0.83 HR/9) compared to at night (4.00 ERA, 1.16 HR/9). With Snell expected to lead the way, a quality start from Roark would suffice and cash this.

Bet: UNDER 8.5 (-114)

Other Picks & Leans August 24

LAA/HOU Over 9.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 8-19-4, -13.45 units Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Pirates Under 9 (“Push”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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