Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: MLB Over/Under Picks

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Monetizing the masterful work of Lamet
Matt Zylbert
Thu, August 27, 9:45 AM EDT

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres (Game 1)

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Ljay Newsome (0-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Dinelson Lamet (2-1, 1.89 ERA)

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres Predictions

Emotions are undoubtedly running high following the postponement of last night’s contest between these two teams in protest of national current events. Not only that, the pitcher who was slated to start that game (not to mention the opener of this doubleheader), Taijuan Walker, was dealt to Toronto this morning.

That puts the Mariners in a bit of a bind. However, the advantage of taking the first encounter today is that you have all the parts of their bullpen to work with for an already-shortened affair. And that will likely come into play as it concerns rookie Ljay Newsome in his second appearance.

First of all, an early start time typically plays a role on the west coast, especially after something as mentally draining as last night’s happenings. That will be the situation with a noon first pitch in San Diego and that can only help a guy like Newsome, whom the Padres haven’t seen.

The 23-year-old right-hander was actually fairly impressive last year in the minor leagues. Across three levels, Newsome made 28 starts and produced a 3.54 ERA, but most notably, he also logged a 168:17 K/BB ratio in 155 frames.

With this meeting only requiring seven (or even six, if the Friars are winning) innings, I believe there’s enough here to keep this one from getting out of hand. Remember, all hands will be on deck for the Mariners — and against a lineup without regulars.

That’s good to know because on the other side, you can put your full trust in Dinelson Lamet. If this were a normal regular season, not only would the hard-throwing Dominican be in the conversation for the National League Cy Young Award, he’d also be on there verge of his first career berth in the Midsummer Classic. Lamet has unquestionably looked like an All-Star.

Being seventh in the Majors in both ERA (1.89) and K/9 (12.2), there appears to be no slowing down Lamet, let alone a Mariners offense that holds the fifth-lowest team OPS (.682) in baseball. Not only that, he’s got an excellent core of relievers to lean on closing it out as well.

Bet: UNDER 6.5 (-120)

MLB Leans - August 27

CIN/MIL Over 7 (Game 2)

MIA/NYM Under 9 (if Steven Matz starts)

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-20-4, -13.59 units

Yesterday’s Result: Yankees-Braves Game 2 Under 6.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Mariners vs. Padres Under 6.5 @ -120

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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