Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: MLB Over/Under Picks

Monday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Trusting the daytime stylings of deGrom once more
Matt Zylbert
Mon, August 31, 12:05 PM

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Trevor Rogers (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.80 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Predictions

It’s one of the best constants in sports betting: Jacob deGrom in the daytime.

As highlighted before, deGrom has the lowest afternoon ERA (1.84!) in Major League history, which he’s crafted together in 55 career assignments — or 348 total innings, so you know this isn’t a coincidence at all in that big sample size.

The reigning two-time National League Cy Young Award winner actually owns a better ERA (1.80) than that on the season right now and it would be hard to envision him suddenly falling off that pace in today’s outing with a familiar opponent.

In fact, deGrom has gotten to know the Marlins quite well post-pandemic. This will be his fourth straight meeting with the Fish, and in the previous three, he hung up these stats: 18 innings, three runs, 27 strikeouts and only four hits allowed. Of course, thanks to the Mets bullpen, deGrom got just one win over that stretch.

Well, all we care about is drawing another such performance from the perennial All-Star and the likelihood of that seems pretty good. It will also help that slugger Jesus Aguilar — the one player to take deGrom deep during those last three starts — is out of the lineup with an injury.

As for the other side, we also must count on Trevor Rogers in his second career MLB outing. Given what he did in his lone previous one (against these Mets, too), it’s reasonable to think he can at least hang.

Rogers compiled a strong showing in his debut last week, blanking New York across four sharp innings that saw him yield only a single hit and punch out six.

He did also walk five but that’s actually something that can play into his advantage. The Mets will be looking to swing the bats today after the two crushing losses they endured yesterday against the crosstown rival Yankees. That can only boost Rogers’ chances to perhaps be effectively wild, if need be.

Bet: UNDER 7.5 (-105)

MLB Leans - August 31

BAL/TOR Under 10

ATL/BOS Under 9.5

SD/COL Over 12

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-24-4, -18.21 units

Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Phillies Under 10 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Marlins vs. Mets Under 7.5 @ -105

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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