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Tuesday‘s MLB Over/Under Bet: Impact of Gausman staying put

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 12.5

First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Kevin Gausman (1-2, 4.54 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (2-3, 5.45 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Predictions

When it comes to over/unders in baseball, they usually don’t get trickier than when emanating from hitters-haven Coors Field.

Obviously, there are typically more runs scored in Colorado, hence why these games attract higher totals from the linesmakers. But when involving a pitching matchup that consists of a pair of steady starters, there’s opportunity to capitalize.

For the away side, it will be a pitcher that was just recently splattered throughout trade deadline rumors for weeks. That would be Kevin Gausman, who actually expressed a desire to stay put, and since he got his wish, we can anticipated an even more fired-up version of the right-hander. Gausman realizes these starts are huge for a continued push to the playoffs.

He’s actually been pretty good in his first season with the Giants, which is why he was a name coveted by other contenders — and it can be argued that Gausman has pitched better than his current 4.54 ERA. After all, the former No. 4 overall draft pick holds a standout 3.30 FIP and he’s also logging a career-best 12.11 K/9. That would rank him seventh in all of baseball among starting pitchers if he had enough innings under his belt to qualify.

So, it appears Gausman is being undervalued by the linesmakers based on that (not to mention his brutally unlucky .344 batting average on balls put in play) and it’s something to take advantage of. I think he can keep it going with a renewed enthusiasm of staying in San Francisco.

Then there’s Jon Gray, one of those select few Rockies pitchers throughout the years that can consistently be trusted when taking the mound in the Rocky Mountains.

While most hurlers succumb to the tough conditions of Coors, Gray seemingly thrives in them, as evident in how he’s crafted a lower ERA at home compared to on the road in each of the last four years. This season he’s mostly been steady there; in three of his four home assignments, Gray has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper while yielding no more than three runs. Anything close to that here is useful for an under this high.

And like his counterpart this evening, Gray, too, has seen a stark contrast between his ERA (5.45) and FIP (4.48), indicating better days are surely ahead. We’ll be backing two guys trending up and that’s never a bad idea on a high total.

BET: UNDER 12.5 (-119)

MLB Leans - September 1

CLE/KC Over 9

NYM/BAL Over 10.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-25-4, -19.26 units

Yesterday’s Result: MIA/NYM Under 7.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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