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Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Looking at Turnbull vs. Houser

Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Spencer Turnbull (3-2, 2.97 ERA) vs. Adrian Houser (1-3, 4.36 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

Sure, a case could be made that Spencer Turnbull, who went 3-17 only a year ago, is overachieving to this point with a sub-3.00 ERA. I just don’t think that is so.

As I’ve already covered before, Turnbull was convincingly much better in his first full campaign last season than what his paltry win-loss record may say. In fact, he was looking just as strong for half of 2019 as he is now. Prior to the All-Star break, he nearly had a sub-3.00 ERA back then, too.

It’s been a couple of key items that have enabled Turnbull’s notable success. One, he’s utilized an uptick in velocity to his advantage, electing to go with his fastball more than previously. In turn, this game plan has done a nice job for the 27-year-old of keeping the ball in the yard. Six turns through the pitching rotation, Turnbull still has not allowed a home run.

With the Brewers on deck, there’s seemingly a good chance for the Tiger right-hander to continue this run at least one more assignment. Milwaukee is scoring the fewest runs per game (3.89) in the National League and their team .698 OPS is seventh-lowest in all of baseball.

Turnbull’s counterpart tonight, Adrian Houser, is actually someone in a very similar position: older-aged player (even the same age of 27) that took a little bit longer to prove himself as a Major League pitcher — and also someone coming off his first full year in the bigs with potential.

Houser finished with the superior numbers, stringing together a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 111.1 innings. It appeared he was picking up right away from where he left off from last season based on his first pair of starts, and although he’s been a little inconsistent since then, I still think it’s wise to lean on the former second-round pick.

While Detroit has impressed everyone at the plate thus far, the fact remains they haven’t been as potent against right-handed pitching. The club’s team .728 OPS places them 19th in that category, and they’re also striking out an alarming once every 3.2 at-bats opposite righties.

Point being, Houser can handle this opponent and that’s all we need for an over/under of 9. It’s also worth highlighting that he’s been fairly steady at home, never yielding more than four runs in any of his 10 career starts from Miller Park.

BET: UNDER 9 (-113)

MLB Leans - September 2

TB/NYY Over 9

CLE/KC Under 9

TEX/HOU Under 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-26-4, -20.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Rockies Under 12.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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