Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert is back with his daily over/under pick, this time targeting the Rangers vs. Astros game on Thursday
Matt Zylbert
Thu, September 3, 8:43 AM EDT

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.93 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (2-0, 2.68 ERA)

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Predictions

Had a Midsummer Classic been held for this once-in-a-lifetime shortened season, there’s no denying that two All-Stars are about to square off today in Houston.

Lance Lynn wouldn’t just simply earn this  special accolade; he’s also a contender in the American League Cy Young Award picture (although let’s be honest: Shane Bieber is on a path to easily win it), having the sixth-lowest ERA in the Majors (1.93) and even being in the top-10 in Ks with 56.

He’s shining these great numbers through a true consistent rhythm, pitching the Rangers into the sixth inning or deeper in all eight of his starts and not allowing more than a pair of runs until his most recent one. In the right-hander’s defense, that came opposite baseball’s best team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lynn has also punched out at least six in all outings, too.

Bettors also have to note Lynn’s history when tangling with the Astros since signing with Texas before last season. He’s faced them four times as a Ranger and actually went seven strong in all of those meetings, collectively etching a 3.54 ERA and 39-6 K/BB ratio across 28 innings. Of note, the first seven hitters in the Houston batting order this afternoon are hitting a combined 19-for-84 (.226) against the 33-year-old right-hander.

Then there’s 36-year-old Zack Greinke set to go toe-to-toe with what would have been his teammate on this season’s AL All-Star squad. Like Lynn, the 17-year Major League veteran has been very consistent in 2020, holding his opponent to three or fewer runs in each assignment.

Additionally, like his counterpart, Greinke has fared well when taking on this opponent in the recent past. He’s faced Texas a few times in the last handful of years and pitched into the seventh inning each time out. He’s certainly managed to handle superstar slugger Joey Gallo, who is hitless in eight career at-bats versus the righty with one walk and four strikeouts.

Being a day game after a nighttime affair, both lineups figure to be slightly downgraded with regulars sitting also.

Bet: UNDER 7.5 (-112)

MLB Leans - September 3

SD/LAA Under 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-27-4, -21.58 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Brewers Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Rangers vs. Astros Under 7.5 @ -112

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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