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Saturday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Venturing into Giolito’s mastery of KC By Matt Zylbert

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Over/Under: 10

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) vs. Kris Bubic (0-4, 5.46 ERA)

If there’s one Royals killer that’s a pitcher residing in the American League Central, it has to be Chicago’s No. 1,  Lucas Giolito.

Since the beginning of his career, the right-hander has tormented this division rival. He’s logged more innings against them than any other team during his handful of years in the big leagues and the results have been notably positive.

Giolito has received the nod 12 times opposite Kansas City, en route to going 6-2 with a splendid 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s been very consistent, too, pitching the White Sox into the sixth inning or later in all but one of those starts. Holding the Royals collectively to just a puny .181/.250/.328 batting clip, Giolito is consistently lasting deep in the ballgame.

Furthermore, unders have thrived in these specific assignments for Giolito, going 8-3-1 — only one of those games even featured a final score that surpassed 9.

A quality start is the standard Giolito has set for himself when tangling with KC and simply another such performance would provide plenty of room to spare for the other starter in this affair, the fellow former first-round draft pick Kris Bubic.

Though the White Sox sport one of the most potent lineups in the league, this is actually an opponent Bubic has handled fairly well in his first taste of the Majors.

He’s had two dates with them already, and while he only garnered an 0-1 record in those efforts to show for it, Bubic still held his own, yielding four earned runs in 9.1 combined innings to go with a pretty 11-3 K/BB ratio. His most recent start came against Chicago last week and he managed to notch a career-high eight Ks.

The foundation of this over/under revolves around Giolito continuing his excellent pitching as of late and stifling the Royals once more. Bubic hanging in there to precede what has become a dependable bullpen can comfortably provide the rest. 

PICK: UNDER 10 (-125)

MLB Picks & Leans - September 5

PHI/NYM Over 9

MIL/CLE Under 7.5

ARI/SF Under 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-29-4, -23.82 units Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Red Sox Under 8.5 -- Game 1 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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