Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Harnessing Glasnow in his groove By Matt Zylbert
Matt Zylbert
Sun, September 6, 4:57 PM

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Trevor Rogers (1-0, 2.00 ERA) vs. Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.24 ERA)

When on his game, Tyler Glasnow is one of the best going out there. Well, based on how he’s looked as of late, it looks like Glasnow is once again at that elite level.

While the hard-throwing right-hander had a bit of a rocky start to his season, he appears to have settled into his signature dominant rhythm. Glasnow’s last two assignments resulted in his first pair of quality starts this year, as he limited his opponents to just two runs total across 13 overpowering innings. He also recorded 22 strikeouts across those outings compared to only a couple of walks.

The surge in strikeouts is especially notable right now because Glasnow has picked up at least eight Ks in four consecutive starts. That’s the first time in his career he’s ever accomplished that, and given how he would currently lead all starters in strikeout rate (15.1 K/9!) had he pitched enough innings to qualify, it seems  wise to trust him on this clear ascension.

As for the other side of this equation, with an over/under as low as 7.5, you typically want to make sure the two probables are at at least competent. Trevor Rogers fits.

Though we “lost” the under in his last turn, it was no fault of Rogers at all, even claiming a victory opposite Jacob deGrom that day (and in an afternoon game!) in just his second start as a big leaguer. He was once again impressive, limiting the New York Mets to two runs in five frames.

Most glaring about Rogers so far is that despite never pitching above Double-A ball prior to this season, he’s looked polished. He also hasn’t had any issues accumulating Ks, punching out at least five batters in both his starts. Here, he’s he’s getting a club that actually strikes out often with a southpaw doing the pitching.

As a matter of fact, the Rays struck out once every 3.5 at-bats last year opposite left-handed pitching. Thus far in 2020, it’s been even more frequent, sitting down via the K once every 3.3 ABs. This tendency could key a satisfactory performance from Rogers to help trigger an under win.

PICK: UNDER 7.5 (-117)

MLB Picks & Leans September 6

PHI/NYM Under 7.5

STL/CHC Over 12.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 10-29-4, -22.82 units Yesterday’s Result: White Sox-Royals Under 10 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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