Sep 9, 7:44am | 4 min read

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Burnes, Boyd both riding high

ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

TV: YouTube

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (2-0, 2.35 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (1-5, 6.64 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Predictions

Two starting pitchers having much different seasons square off today in the Motor City to conclude this mini two-game interleague series. Yet both may be level right now going by their most recent work.

As Matthew Boyd showed last year, he’s capable of being an upper-rotation starter in the big leagues. He played the part consistently throughout the first half of 2019 and even finished tied for fifth in the Majors in strikeout rate with 11.6 K/9.

He’s been anything but a frontline starter for most of 2020 but it appears the sixth-year southpaw has come out of his lengthy rut to look like the pitcher of old.

Boyd etched consecutive quality starts — his first two of the campaign — across his last two outings and he’s yielded three runs or fewer in four straight. During this impressive stretch, he also has a sterling 29-3 K/BB ratio, spanning 21.1 innings. Most impressive of all, these efforts came against division rivals with tough offenses.

Clearly, this looks like Boyd is in his groove and today’s assignment presents an opponent further ripe for strikeouts. With a left-hander on the hill, the Brewers are punching out once every 3.5 at-bats. Additionally, Boyd will be operating under ideal settings; he’s been significantly better in his daytime assignments (3.99 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) throughout his career than at night (5.65 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).

Then you have the other probable, Corbin Burnes, who is not only rolling right now — he’s been on cruise control fromthe onset.

That’s especially been so since Milwaukee permanently converted the 25-year-old back into a starter. As a matter of fact, Burnes holds a cool 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his five starting assignments.

The last two outings were the most dominant Burnes has looked in back-to-back turns ever. They resulted in his first two career quality starts, and the hard-throwing right-hander also accumulated 17 Ks compared to just three free passes.

Both guys are trending up. The total, meanwhile, is going down, which makes sense given the rhythm of the two starters. They’re also tasked with handling two relatively lighter-hitting lineups that will both be missing regulars, being a day game after a nighttime affair.

Bet: UNDER 8 (-118)