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Thursday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Skubal entering school of Flaherty

Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Game One)

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Tarik Skubal (1-1, 4.70 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (2-1, 2.95 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Predictions

Seven-inning doubleheaders have proven to be mostly tricky to get a handle on thus far in its lone year of existence. Targeting such a game that contains at least one elite-level starter with always a strong possibility to last the whole shoe in these contests can make it a bit easier, however.

With Jack Flaherty on the bump in the first meeting of this Tigers-Cardinals twin bill, that philosophy will come into play. Flaherty is undoubtedly an upper echelon starting pitcher, having solidified himself after an extraordinary second half last season when he was 7-2 with a microscopic 0.91 ERA and 0.71 WHIP (!) in his 15 starts following the All-Star break.

Flaherty isn’t exactly in the National League Cy Young Award conversation like he was a year ago but he’s still crafting together another nice campaign, as evident in his 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while holding batters to a .190 average.

It’s worth highlighting that we’re also getting the 24-year-old in his preferred settings. Specifically, this being a home assignment during the daytime could provide even more of a boost against a lighter-hitting lineup as it is. Since first coming up in 2017, Flaherty has posted an ERA that is nearly one full run lower in St. Louis (2.70) than on the road (3.67), and that’s also been the case for his afternoon starts (2.49) compared to at night (3.55).

With Flaherty doing his thing for at least a distinct majority of the contest, that means bettors just have to worry about the other starter, Tarik Skubal, and what he can bring to the table for this matchup.

Based on the past couple of outings since getting more leash during his turns in the rotation, the freshman southpaw has provided plenty of useful work. In fact, he’s coming off his first career quality start — a six-inning, two-hit gem that also saw him strike out a career-high six — and only three total runs have been scored off Skubal in his last two showings.

As a result, I’m really liking Skubal to continue his upward ascension. It’s as simple as that, being someone that clearly projects as a fine starter in the big leagues for awhile. Hanging in there opposite a lineup that is middle-of-the-pack against left-handed pitching isn’t too much to ask. Flaherty can carry the rest.

BET: UNDER 6 (-119)

MLB Leans - August 10

DET/STL Over 7 (Game Two)

PHI/MIA Under 8.5

BOS/TB Over 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 12-31-4, -23.17 units

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Tigers Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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