Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: MLB Over/Under Picks

Friday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Seeing if Rogers is for real
Matt Zylbert
Fri, September 11, 9:20 AM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 6

First pitch: 5:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola (4-3, 2.74 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (1-0, 3.00 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Predictions

One of the best constants the National League has to offer in terms of starting pitchers is no doubt Aaron Nola, the Philadelphia ace who may be on the brink of the Cy Young conversation once again.

His numbers this season are certainly comparable to the best showing of his career in 2018 — in which Nola was last one of the three finalists for that year’s NL Cy Young Award — when he was 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while limiting opponents to a minuscule .197 average.

Nola may have a slightly higher, yet still desirable, ERA at the moment (2.74) but that doesn’t even do the rest of his strong performance justice. The former first-round draft choice actually has a lower WHIP (0.95) and batting average against (.191) than his Cy Young-contending campaign, and he’s also been etching a career-best strikeout rate with 12.22 K/9. That mark ranks him seventh in baseball.

As much as Nola is normally a constant, he’s arguably even more so when he has the Marlins on his plate. In all but one of his 14 career dates opposite Miami, Nola has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper, which is a tendency that can be very valuable in these shortened seven-inning affairs. It means the involvement of Philadelphia’s bad bullpen will be minimal.

Additionally, Nola has handled the Fish well since first coming up, evidenced by the 3.49 ERA and 1.08 WHIP he’s collectively hung on them in 87.2 frames.

Making his fourth start in the bigs, Trevor Rogers is quickly showing that he can also be a dependable constant for bettors, too.

After a pair of fine outings against the New York Mets to begin his career, Rogers showcased his first six-inning effort and reached double-digit strikeouts for the first time during his last turn. That’s the kind of potential the 22-year has displayed thus far and I don’t sense him suddenly coming apart. As manager Don Mattingly described, he’s “even-keeled.”

True, we are “0-2” in unders involving Rogers but it’s obviously been no fault of the freshman left-hander as he continues to effectively take up the majority of the ballgame. Banking on another such rendition of this work seems like a sound investment, and combined with Nola’s typical gem, we decisively have our play.

Bet: UNDER 6 (-109)

MLB Leans - September 11

DET/CHW Under 8

SEA/ARI Under 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 12-32-4, -24.36 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Cardinals Under 6 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Under 6 @ -109

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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