Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: MLB Over/Under Picks

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Mining Corbin’s track record vs. Braves
Matt Zylbert
Sat, September 12, 9:20 AM EDT

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals 

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (2-4, 4.34 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Predictions

All eight meetings between these two National League East rivals have seen the final tally add up to eight or more runs, with the over manufacturing a 7-0-1 mark.

However, that doesn’t mean turn to the over for their ninth — and penultimate — encounter of the season. Not with these two starting pitchers going on the bump.

Patrick Corbin contributed to one of those overs. It came less than a week ago in fact when the Braves tagged him for season-high-tying five runs last Sunday. Even so, Corbin’s history when tangling with Atlanta needs to be noted and banked on.

The two-time NL All-Star has actually been fantastic in his dates with the Bravos. Despite the tough showing his last time out, Corbin still possesses a pristine 2.44 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances (11 starts) against this opponent — his lowest ERA of any club he’s seen 10 or more times — and in the process, he’s allowed only four home runs in 70 total innings.

That’s a nice track record to summon for a bet and Corbin will also get a boost from pitching in D.C. this evening. He holds some of the more distinct home-and-away splits in the league, logging a career ERA in his home assignments (3.33) that is more than a full run lower than when he’s pitching on the road (4.35). When you’ve been in the bigs for nine years, it’s a significantly meaningful trend to lean on.

Meanwhile, Corbin will go toe-to-toe with a pitcher that’s been in The Show for all of three starts, yet has already exhibited the polish and moxie of an established vet. That, of course, is rookie Ian Anderson.

Although the former No. 3 overall draft pick went just three innings in his most recent outing, that was largely due to an error he made in the field that ultimately led to a lot more pitches. Nonetheless, he was still only touched for one earned run in the effort and he’s yet to allow more than a pair of runs in any assignment yet.

Clearly, he is someone that is already comfortable at this level. Anderson’s punched out 18 batters across his 15-inning lifespan thus far and that’s a trait he displayed often throughout his minor league journey, recording more than 10 K/9 in each of the last three years. Additionally, he’s only served up one tater.

Anderson is in a spot to keep trending in the right direction. That, along with the usual work from Corbin under these particular conditions, decides this play.

Bet: UNDER 9 (-115)

MLB Leans - September 12

BOS/TB Under 8

CLE/MIN Over 8

SEA/ARI Under 8.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 12-33-4, -25.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Marlins Under 6 -- Game 1 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Braves vs. Nationals Under 9 @ -115

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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