Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: MLB Over/Under Picks

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Is Eovaldi entering a groove?
Matt Zylbert
Thu, September 17, 11:41 AM

Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 4.82 ERA) vs. Jose Urena (0-1, 7.71 ERA)

Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins Predictions

Even in this era of the universal designated hitter, games from Marlins Park have rarely been getting tagged with an over/under as high as 9. For this series finale from South Beach, though, that’s exactly what the linesmakers settled on.

It’s an understandable decision. At first glance, the numbers of Nathan Eovaldi don’t jump out or anything, while Jose Urena just recently returned from his bout with COVID-19 and hasn’t looked too hot.

However, look for both starters on the bump today to chuck some pretty solid stuff. Eovaldi in particular is coming off an encouraging first start back after missing a few weeks with a calf injury, and before that, he enjoyed his finest outing of the season when he yielded one run in seven very good innings to the Baltimore Orioles.

Eovaldi’s last time out saw the veteran right-hander clock out with only three frames under his belt but that’s because he was on a pitch count. For this next assignment, we don’t have to worry about that, as Eovaldi said he’ll be targeting 75-80 pitches, meaning he can contribute six quality innings and minimize the impact of a troublesome Red Sox bullpen.

Besides that, Eovaldi has actually been just fine this season despite what his 4.82 ERA might suggest. If you take out one start where he got battered at Yankee Stadium, his stats really aren’t bad at all.

This is a start that will also bring about some familiarity for Eovaldi, who was a Marlin for two-and-a-half years. Since then, he’s pitched in Miami as a visitor twice — the first time saw him get absolutely hammered and not even make it out of the first inning, but he did bounce back in his next (and only other) trip there, going six strong and laying a quality start.

Of course, we’re also going to need some sort of rebound from the other starter in this affair, Urena, following a couple of unspectacular showings that finally reigned in his season. At the same time, he didn’t look awful either, and it is the trust in the 29-year-old to build upon what he’s done and get back to form, that can make a huge difference in this total wager.

First off, based on the game-time conditions, this is an ideal spot for Urena to get it going. Not only has he been a little steadier at home during his career, he’s also been notably better when working during the daytime, which will be the case today. In fact, his afternoon ERA (3.14) is more than two full runs lower (!) than it is at night (5.38) — and that’s across a sample size of six MLB seasons.

Being a day game after an evening affair, we can also maybe anticipate some regulars in the batting order on both sides to be out. That’s only going to provide a boost for each of the probables’ outlook for effectively going deep into the game.

Bet: UNDER 9 (+105)

MLB Leans - September 17

MIN/CHW Under 9

TB/BAL Under 6.5 (Game 1)

CLE/DET Under 7.5

TEX/HOU Over 9

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 14-36-4, -26.86 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Angels Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Under 9 @ +105

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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