Kansas City Royals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: MLB Over/Under Picks
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Kris Bubic (1-5, 4.50 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (3-0, 1.98 ERA)
Kansas City Royals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Predictions
His name isn’t getting mentioned with the familiar suspects (Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer, Yu Darvish) for this year’s National League Cy Young Award but Corbin Burnes needs to be in the conversation.
After a season that saw the then-second-year pitcher get demoted from the rotation following only a few starts, Burnes has been absolutely lights out in what has been a complete retransformation. As I detailed going into his 2020 debut on the first Saturday of the campaign, Burnes put a ton of work in during the extended offseason and, well, clearly, it has paid off and allowed the right-hander to harness his high talents.
Burnes has accumulated 75 punch-outs in just 50 innings — good for an outstanding strikeout rate of 13.5 K/9 — but perhaps most impressive of all, opposing hitters are managing just a puny .154/.256/.229 slash line off the Brewer hurler. That .154 batting average against is actually the lowest such mark in Major League Baseball amongst all starting pitchers.
Just as important as anything, we’re catching him as hot as he’s ever been. Burnes recorded three double-digit strikeout performances within his last four outings, allowing just two runs (one earned) in the process. To put that in perspective, Burnes was the owner of only one performance with at least 10 Ks prior.
Burnes isn’t the only starter entering tonight’s assignment at Miller Park looking hot. The same can be said of his counterpart, Kris Bubic, who is actually coming off his first career MLB triumph.
That ‘We coincided with Bubic’s first bout in which he yielded fewer than multiple runs. And based on how he’s looked overall lately, there could be at least another one of those before his freshman season reaches its impending conclusion.
Across his last three starts, Bubic has limited the opposition to no more than a pair of runs, going at least five strong in all those outings as well. He also assembled an encouraging 18-5 K/BB ratio during this stretch, which spanned 17.1 innings.
When seeking an under with an overpowering pitcher that’s in a dominant groove like Burnes on one side, you prefer to have him squaring off with someone that’s in an established steady rhythm. I believe that is the case with Bubic, leading to usefulness in churning out a low score.
MLB Leans - September 19
TB/BAL Over 8.5
MIN/CHC Under 8
2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 15-37-4, -27.01 units
Yesterday’s Result: Cardinals-Pirates Under 7 -- Game 1 (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit