Sep 25, 10:49am | 4 min read

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Friday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: The Sheriff invades fresh turf

ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Game 1)

Over/Under: 6.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Chris Paddack (4-4, 4.23 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (3-3, 4.53 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions

The game script of Chris Paddack dominating for the majority of a shortened doubleheader affair and paving the way for a stout bullpen is too good to pass up.

That’s the main reason why I’ll be on the under in the opener of this crucial twin-bill between National League West rivals. We’ve seen Paddack dominate plenty of times before and his most recent shutdown start provides lots of optimism.

In that last assignment, the righty otherwise known as The Sheriff shackled the Seattle Mariners to only one hit across six shutout innings. With another quality performance under his belt, Paddack has now rifled a 2.41 ERA in his last four starts while holding opponents to a measly .203/.257/.304 batting clip during this stretch. He’s also put together a 21-4 K/BB ratio but perhaps most notable for the youngster is he’s yielded just one homer.

This was the biggest factor why Paddack wasn’t breaking out in the first month of the campaign, as he had been tagged for 10 taters in his first seven assignments. However, by keeping the ball in the yard lately, Paddack is flourishing significantly.

With this version of Paddack against a foe whom he’s typically held in check, that could work wonders in figuring out how to bet this seven-inning contest. In fact, he’s never lasted less than five innings in any of his five career dates with the Giants — nor has he surrendered four or more runs.

There’s another side to worry about, too, as far as pitching goes but I think Paddack has a fine enough dance partner to help fuel a lower-scoring final outcome.

Tyler Anderson has been very serviceable in his first year as a Giant and provided much-needed stability for a rotation that had a lot of questions entering the season. He’s tied for the third-most starts.

Anderson has been pretty much completely either hit or miss each time he’s taken the hill for a start. In four of his assignments, the fifth-year southpaw allowed zero earned runs but in five others, he got hit for at least four tallies.

Being within the pitching-friendly confines of Oracle Park should help prevent one of those latter outputs. Throughout his career, Anderson has registered a far lower ERA when at home (4.10) compared to on the road (5.40), and that trend has continued once again in 2020. Anderson’s ERA in San Francisco (3.04) is nearly half of what it is outside the Bay Area (6.00).

San Diego’s lineup is definitely intimidating but with two games on the schedule today, and both being relatively meaningless for them, there’s a good chance at least a few backups are in the batting order. And that’s the key; getting Anderson to hang while Paddack leads.

Bet: UNDER 6.5 (-110)