Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Over/Under Picks

Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Is Dodger lumber about to break out?
Matt Zylbert
Wed, October 14, 1:19 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Venue: Globe Life Field (Texas)

Probable pitchers: Julio Urias (3-0, 3.27 ERA) vs. Kyle Wright (2-4, 5.21 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions

Prior to this year, rumblings could heard whether or not Kyle Wright was ready yet for the big leagues. Even after this recently-completed regular season, those questions still persist.

In 2019, the former No. 5 overall draft pitched in seven games (four starts) and was tagged for as many runs (19) as innings pitched (19.2). This year saw improvement from Wright (which is hard not to do when you’re saddled with an 8.69 ERA) but the numbers were still far from desirable, as he went 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He also notched a very unspectacular 30-24 K/BB ratio across his 38 innings of work.

To his credit, Wright hasn’t looked better since arriving in The Show than right now. He’s tossed four consecutive quality starts — including his lone postseason outing last week — this after previously registering only one career quality start in nine MLB assignments.

Even so, he’s about to get his first taste of the National League’s strongest lineup. The Dodgers were baseball’s best team this year in large part due to a tantalizing offense that ranked second in the majors in team OPS (.821) — ironically behind only these Braves (.832) — and also cranked out the most homers (118), with nearly two per game!

Los Angeles exploded with five runs in the ninth before their comeback fell short but I believe the bats can pick up where they left off opposite a fairly hittable right-hander.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have someone a little more seasoned going on the mound for them in what has to be considered a must-win game. That would be the fifth-year southpaw, Julio Urias.

The longtime highly-coveted prospect enjoyed another successful showing in 2020, going 3-0 in 10 starts (and one relief appearance) with a 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s continued that nice pitching this postseason through two starts, yielding only a single unearned run across eight innings and scattering just four hits total.

This is the type of high ceiling Urias is capable of reaching but this will be one of his toughest matchups to date. Like LA, the Braves sport one of the most dangerous batting orders in the game — and it’s one that has especially excelled against left-handed pitching this postseason.

With a lefty on the hill, Atlanta is raking at a scorching .344/.417/.625 batting clip, and their 1.042 OPS in this category is decisively ahead of all other 15 playoff teams.

Overall, there figures to be at least one crooked number on the scoreboard tonight, and with that setting the bar for who takes Game 3, it can dictate the impact of both offenses.

Bet: OVER 9.5 (-120)

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular season: “19-42-4,” -28.91 units

Postseason: 8-4, +2.40 units

Last Result: Rays-Astros Over 8.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit (postseason 0.5 unit except first one)

Over 9.5 @ -120

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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