Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Over/Under Picks

Tuesday’s World Series Game 1 MLB Over/Under Bet: Kershaw back in familiar spot
Matt Zylbert
Tue, October 20, 7:46 PM

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Over/Under: 7.5
First pitch: 8:11 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Venue: Globe Life Field (Texas)
 Probable pitchers: Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers​​​​​​​ Predictions

When approaching the World Series, there’s a clearer picture in betting regarding who can be trusted in a postseason wager and who cannot.

In the case of Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw, it can be said both are reliable.

Yeah, yeah. The narrative surrounding the latter during playoff baseball has haunted Kershaw throughout his career and will continue to hover around his surefire Hall-of-Fame legacy long after he is gone. But as I’ve highlighted already, the truth is Kershaw has actually been much better than his postseason-career 4.31 ERA.

Take his last assignment, for instance. That came in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves, when he was faring very well by holding a tough lineup to just one run in five lineups before hitting a rough patch in the sixth (and, as usual, all of the bullpen’s inherited runners from Kershaw scored). That’s been the case many times.

This time around, I see Kershaw thriving longer in what could easily be a playoff renaissance. The Rays are a good matchup for the former NL MVP and Cy Young, being a club that strikes out often against left-handed pitching. In fact, as I’ve covered before, Tampa registered a K at the plate once every three at-bats with a southpaw on the mound — a tendency they seamlessly continued from last year.

Thus, not only is Kershaw set up to enjoy success this evening, but also for the entire Fall Classic. How about Glasnow?

That remains to be seen opposite a Dodgers lineup in the process of heating up. After all, they did average six-plus runs per night in the last six NLCS games.

But it’s hard not to like the progress Glasgow has made in his second postseason compared to his first taste of it last October. Glasnow lost both of his playoff starts in 2019 while getting saddled with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP but 2020 has been a different story, seeing him cut those numbers significantly across three outings (4.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and even shackling opposing hitters to a harmless .120 batting average.

Glasnow is indeed really good and as long as he sustains that steady pitching, when squaring off with what I know will be a game Kershaw, that can do the job here.

Bet: UNDER 7.5 (-120)

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular season: “19-42-4,” -28.91 units
Postseason: 11-5, +3.35 units
Last Result: Braves-Dodgers Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit (postseason 0.5 unit except first one)

UNDER 7.5 (-120)

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
2
Losses
1
Push
0
ROI
32.40%
0Betslip

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