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Friday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Leaning on established postseason track records

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET


Venue: Globe Life Field (Texas)

Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.44 ERA) vs. Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

Could either side come up with a better ‘big-game’ pitcher for tonight’s Game 3 of the World Series? Based on postseason track records, the answer is a decisive no.

Walker Buehler — or “Playoff” Buehler, as I’ve been calling him — has been nothing short of sensational this time of year since first coming up three seasons ago. After leading LA to stave off elimination in National League Championship Series Game 6 last week with a terrific start, Buehler now owns a pristine 2.44 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his 10 career playoff outings, spanning 55.1 innings. That’s really good.

He’s been mostly dominant as well, yielding just six runs total across his last eight postseason assignments. Overall in the playoffs, Buehler’s painted a 73-21 K/BB ratio while holding opposing batters to a harmless .182 average and .562 OPS.

So how can you go against that? Plus, he’s been more effective this postseason as we keep getting deeper into October.

Just like how could go against the customary solid playoff pitching of the other starter this evening, Charlie Morton?

The 13-year veteran holds a 2.84 ERA lifetime in the playoffs and has seemingly been extra stingy this October, with only one earned run scored upon Morton in his three starts stretched across 15.2 frames.

One of the main reasons for Morton’s long-standing notable success at this stage is that he’s been able to keep the ball in the yard. Only four home runs have been cranked out off the right-hander and with the Dodgers’ reliance on the long ball, if they can’t successfully launch some taters, less offense is more likely.

Both pitchers have made seven combined starts these playoffs, resulting in a 6-1 record for under bets thanks to stellar work. No sense trying to go against that.

Bet: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular season: “19-42-4,” -28.91 units

Postseason: 11-7, +2.25 units

Last Result: Rays-Dodgers Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit (postseason 0.5 unit except first one)


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