Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: MLB Over/Under Picks

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Kershaw, Glasnow prepare for second Series clash
Matt Zylbert
Sun, October 25, 9:36 AM EDT

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Venue: Globe Life Field (Texas)

Probable pitchers: Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA) vs. Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

For the second time in six days, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow will face off in a World Series game.

They just met in Game 1 on Tuesday, when Kershaw was victorious after yielding just one run in six sharp innings that also saw him scatter only three total baserunners.

The future Hall-of-Famer also struck out eight and that’s a very notable tendency to pick on as I’ve highlighted before: Tampa whiffs and punches out an awful lot when taking on left-handed pitching.

Such a trait was on full display once again last night with LA’s left-handed starter Julio Urias, who recorded nine Ks in less than five innings of work. Since this is something that dates back to last year, it can continue to be trusted for betting.

And lest we forget what Kershaw is in the midst of. Just like I predicted in the wild Card Round, he’s experiencing a postseason renaissance to help lighten the false narrative about his playoff troubles. Outside of the sixth inning of his lone National League Championship Series start, only five runs have been scored off Kershaw across 25 frames.

So, I’m going to lean on him for an under here once again with the hope that he can still maintain his refreshing October surge.

That brings us to Glasnow, who may not have produced a favorable final stat line in the opener but he definitely pitched far better than that if you watched the game.

Glasnow cruised through the first three innings before getting bit by the long ball in the fourth for a pair of runs. The sixth is when it would come apart for the fifth-year right-hander, but that could largely be attributed to a career-high pitch count.

He threw 112 pitches in the effort and that’s ultimately what did him in. If Glasgow could be more efficient (he did walk six, after all), he’ll go deeper into the game with his usual effectiveness, but even if he doesn’t, I still like being able to trust an upper echelon bullpen past him.

Remember, there’s a day off tomorrow, meaning the Rays will be prepared to unholster all their main relief artillery. Thus, a solid six innings from Glasnow figures to be enough to get the job done.

Bet: UNDER 8 (-120)

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*

Regular season: “19-42-4,” -28.91 units

Postseason: 11-9, +1.20 units

Last Result: Dodgers-Rays Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit (postseason 0.5 unit except first one)

Under 8 @ -120

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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