Apr 10, 12:31pm | 4 min read

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Matt Zylbert closes out the work week with a pick for Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Trevor Rogers (0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Predictions

Jacob deGrom. Just the name itself exudes greatness at this point, instantly being associated with the very best pitchers in baseball for a few years now.

Nothing else really needs to be added other than when the two-time National League Cy Young Award winner is entering a start in his preferred setting. And that would be the daytime, which will be the case for deGrom in his second 2021 start.

As I’ve highlighted several times before, the Mets ace literally has the best career ERA (1.82!) in history during he afternoon, and that’s across a significant sample size of 361 innings. He also owns a 1.02 WHIP.

Not only that, deGrom generally excels when protecting his home turf. He notably sports a sparking 2.19 ERA lifetime when going at Citi Field, nearly a full run lower than his career ERA (3.02) in road outings.

No need to overthink it. We can trust perhaps the best pitcher in the world to keep churning out his magnificent work.

As for the counterpart, we would just like someone that can stay afloat today while deGrom does the heavy lifting and that’s what we get with the inclusion of Rogers.

The recent former first-round draft pick made his Major League debut last year — even despite never having previously pitched above Double-A ball — and wowed for the most part. Though he did ultimately finish with a 6.11 ERA, Rogers impressed, spectacularly registering 12.54 K/9. His high ERA was also mainly the product of one really poor assignment.

Besides, Rogers thrived in his dates opposite the Mets, which were interestingly his first two in The Show. New York managed only two runs total off the southpaw in that pair of starts — while striking out 11 times. He can dominate.

Rogers won’t even have to do that, having room for error considering his adversary. As long as deGrom does what he always does during the day, we should be good.

Pick: UNDER 7 @ -120 (Click to bet)